Nick Hedley @lensofjw David Osmond Anton Eberhard SAPVIA SAWEA Grové Steyn Done. 60GW PV, 40GW wind, 30GW 4 hour storage + existing 2.7GW 20 hour pump storage, and still using Hydro from Cahora Bassa plus Gariep and Vd Kloof dams. Last week of March 2023. Zero coal, zero nuclear, and zero 'gas' OCGTs. RE 100%

@lensofjw Nick Hedley Anton Eberhard SAPVIA SAWEA Grové Steyn Something like this? 2023, 2025, 2030, 2035. By 2035, only 6GW of coal left, with 60GW additional PV, 40GW additional wind, and 30GW of 4 hour storage.

Feels like an interview I did last night. m.youtube.com/watch?v=bOPQHx… m.youtube.com/watch?v=bOPQHx…

We generally import slightly more electricity from our neighbours than we export. Imports dropped for quite long periods when the line to Cahora Bassa was down.

Electricity imports from and exports to South Africa's neighbours. Note the drop off in imports when the Cahora Bassa line has been damaged. We generally import slightly more than we export.

Catch me on SABC channel 404 this evening when I will be delivering my second energy whether forecast. This time it focuses on whether we can expect reduced load shedding for the remainder of winter.

youtube.com/watch?v=pB00vH…

The factual picture of declining output from the Eskom coal fleet. The average output for 2023 YTD is less than 19GW, which represents an average coal fleet capacity factor of just under 49%. The actual output is the key metric to monitor, not the total fleet EAF, so often quoted

"We do not need to consume as much energy as we do, and we won't in the future." Try explaining that to the ten million households that are connected to the grid, but live in energy poverty, primarily due to affordability.

The chart that I published in January this year, showing predicted levels of maximum shortfall based on coal fleet capacity factors. Currently, the coal fleet is flirting with a capacity factor of just over 41%. This translates to a shortfall of 8GW. Hope no more units drop out.

Giving an updated whether forecast on SABC morning live at 07h35, channel 404, 15 September. This time round, I will be forecasting whether or not we can expect an extended spell of high stages of load shedding.

Some cold, old fashion, hard facts about unplanned outages. It seems that the revised figure of 16,000 MW used in the most recent Eskom 12 month outlook is a tad optimistic. A textbook example of unpredictability.

1. Ave. hourly residual load (= load - coal-nuclear-Cahora Bassa) for 2023 ytd. Ave. other generation per hour. Gap = ave. shortfall. 2. Load-shedding to meet shorfall. 3. A much better way of meeting shortfall - no load-shedding, no diesel, excess generation fills the storage.

The Eskom coal fleet recently dipped below a capacity factor of 44% in Nov. An analysis I undertook in January 2023 led to the publication of the maximum level of load shedding to expect each month, based on forecast demand, and the performance of the coal fleet. Check it out.

Plot of November 2023 average hourly residual load (Load-coal-nuclear-Cahora Bassa). Shortfall made up by wind, PV, CSP, hydro, OCGTs, PS, and load shedding. Shocking that in windy, sunny SA we have to resort to nightime usuage of diesel OCGTs and load shedding to replenish PS.

The downward trend continues, as the year end approaches.

Not a pretty picture. Eskom planned, unplanned, and other capacity loss factors for 2023. In an ideal world, the unplanned and other losses should be less than those falling under planned maintenance. Unplanned maintenance (UCLF) is otherwise known as broken.

Hours and TWh of actual manual load reduction for 2018 to 2023. Load shedding for 2023 was 16.56TWh, more than double that of 2022, and nine times that of 2021. The IRP 2023 is not suitable to arrest the crisis. We urgently require a fit for purpose peoples IRP.

The chart shows figures for calendar years, and Eskom results are for the financial year, which runs from 1 April each year. When Eskom declare diesel expenditure for 2023, they mean for the Eskom financial year to date. The Eskom financial year 2023/24 ends on 31 March 2024.

Brings a whole new meaning to TGIF.