Our Omicron severity paper now out in The Lancet 🎉

Analysing over 1.5 MILLION cases in England 🦠

We found Omicron had a
⬇️59% (57-61%) reduced risk of hospital admission &
⬇️69% (63-74%) reduced risk of death compared to Delta

thelancet.com/journals/lance…

It’s not a bug, it’s a feature

NEW: for the first time in the pandemic, a Covid infection now carries less mortality risk than a flu infection in England, the result of widespread immunity and the emergence of a less virulent variant in Omicron.

Our story: ft.com/content/e26c93…

In Catalonia 🇪🇸, 6yo wore masks in schools but 5yo did not

A brilliant team used this to see what effect mask wearing had on #COVID19 transmission

Finding: No difference between the two groups

Conclusion: No meaningful effect of masking school children

papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…

South Korea Covid surge, currently one of the worst in the world

Unsurprisingly, a representative from Alabama is asking non-expert Lucy McBride about 'dramatic increases in suicide.' She has no expertise or credentials to testify on this.

#expertisematters

Rep. Frank Pallone Energy & Commerce Democrats Rep. Diana DeGette Gary Palmer

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T cells: Someone asked today if common cold coronaviruses (e.g. OC43) generate T cells. They do (paper); T cells protect you against severe disease & are generated by COVID vaccines. Antibodies wane to any vax/infection; you can get OC43 colds again
jci.org/articles/view/…

Fascinating data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) schools infection survey today, looking specifically at mental health and 'long covid'

Reinforces previous reassuring data showing rarity of prolonged symptoms in children, especially those affecting daily life

1/
ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulati…

I don't know much about invasions, weapons, economic sanctions, or international diplomacy

But I do know the right way to respond to refugees of war

Let. Them. In.

With arms wide open 🇺🇦

One of these countries abandoned mandatory masks and vaccine passports over a month ago. 🤔

When we actually ask kids and families we find out things that (shouldn't) surprise us - some kids did a lot better when things were on lockdown, and even in those kids, there are nuances of what made things better or worse.

Counter moral panic so please amplify; media won't.

Latest ONS weekly deaths data (to week ending 11 Feb) has been released.

367 fewer deaths were recorded in-week compared to the 2015-19 average. That’s 3% lower.

Year-to-date there have been 74,170 deaths recorded, which is 3% lower than the 2015-19 average.

There are better ways of spending £2 billion a month than testing a million people a day for Covid. Me for the New Statesman. newstatesman.com/comment/2022/0…

Chise, what about the preprint out of Japan regarding BA.2 severity? WELL, it turns out if you read the study and look at the antigenic data, they only show an antigenic difference when they used RODENT sera. When they tested human sera, there was NO DIFFERENCE. READ THAT AGAIN.

Fact check: 'Omicron wave did not result in any excess deaths'

True. In the UK, we did see a modest rise in COVID-19 deaths with Omicron, but compared to previous years (2015-2019) there were fewer deaths than an average January

1/2

app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjo…

Median R-value across England is 0.78 for week ending 18th February
Highest rate is Horsham, 854/100k
Highest R value is Copeland, 0.96
archive.uea.ac.uk/~e130/R.html

The UK has done many things wrong in the pandemic, but it has been world leading in surveillance.
As the govt prepares to cut back on protections, a short thread on some of the contributions of REACT study in detecting new waves and variants, vaccine impact & inequalities. 1/

Why omit that FL has one of the oldest populations, CA one of the youngest?

Still, excess deaths since Mar 2020:
CA 18.8%,
FL 18.1%

So, despite CA imposing far more austere measures—they had same excess deaths. This completely falsifies your thesis.

usmortality.com/excess-ranking

Most kids, parents & adults in NSW & Victoria got infected with Omicron over the school holidays- not when schools re-opened. The peak was in mid January during school holidays & case numbers have plummeted in all age groups since.

Our 61st Friday Report is now available covering recent developments with vaccines, treatments and data.

In this edition (thread):
- Vaccines for kids aged 5-11
- BA.2 growth advantage
- Increased risk of heart disease and stroke after COVID infection

covidactuaries.org/2022/02/18/the…