Have the Magnificent 7 stocks peaked? spglobal.com/marketintellig…

More than 2 years after it inverted a key portion of the Treasury yield curve is back to zero. Is a recession coming? "There's really no good way to say what the lag is from inversion to recession, but I think the key is when the curve dis-inverts" spglobal.com/marketintellig…

As central bankers prepare to meet in Jackson Hole, concerns about the health of the US labor market have supplanted fears about inflation. On the Fed's radar are regions like the Lehigh Valley, where things have cooled but no major cracks have emerged yet ft.com/content/7fb485…

Great Callie Cox on how the market experts got it so wrong: "We make a living from boosting brand awareness through media hits and TV spots. Our reach and volume — not our thorough analysis — are how our (short-term) success is measured." optimisticallie.com/p/some-thought…

Data Dispatch: Institutional investors dumped NVIDIA stock as it hit record high in Q2 2024 | S&P Global Market Intelligence spglobal.com/marketintellig…

"The dollar will remain under broad, downside pressure until we get top-line data that confirms the US labor market is adjusting smoothly," said Elias Haddad w/ Brown Brothers Harriman spglobal.com/marketintellig… #USDJPY

My thoughts on what it would take to drive the market to price in MORE #Fed easing from here 👇 Thanks Brian Scheid! spglobal.com/marketintellig…

"Powell will likely lean on the [projections'] dot plot and macro projections to tell the main story: This is an FOMC that has turned the corner." Derek Tang's thoughts ahead of this week's meeting. Brian Scheid S&P Global PMI™ spglobal.com/marketintellig…

From sellers to buyers: Institutional investors boost exposure to stocks ahead of Fed cuts "With a longer investment horizon and the potential for multiple rate cuts starting in September, they might be positioning for a longer-term market upswing" spglobal.com/marketintellig… FOMC

"Was the 50 bps necessary? Maybe not, but it's warranted," said Kathy Jones. "I think Powell saying the labor market is 'still solid' can be justified by the level of unemployment — but not by the trend in unemployment." spglobal.com/marketintellig…

Stock rally? "The Fed is clearly looking to minimize the left tail risk of a deteriorating labor market, essentially putting a cap on the unemployment rate," Sonu Varghese "That is likely to be positive for the economy and markets over the next year." spglobal.com/marketintellig…

Fed officials now see long term rates at 2.9%, the highest in 6 years. What's the risk of a new neutral? The Fed "could be moving policy to an inappropriate target and creating a policy error" says Mike O'Rourke Jr spglobal.com/marketintellig… #FOMC r*

US companies have slowed hiring and workers aren't quitting, a labor market trend that may not ease until interest rate cuts take root "This is a really tough job market for job seekers," says Guy Berger spglobal.com/marketintellig… w/ Daniel Zhao

Mortgage rates are tumbling, but the US housing market is expected to be hindered by a lack of supply "And you can't buy what's not for sale," says Sam Williamson w/ First American spglobal.com/marketintellig…

"When coming out of a high inflation environment, there's always a concern — be it from investors, consumers or the Fed — that we'll face periods of reflation as monetary policy eases." Thank you Brian Scheid at S&P Global Market Intelligence! Full story 👇 spglobal.com/marketintellig…

After a month of buying, institutional investors back to selling stocks "Institutions are adopting a more defensive position as we enter the final quarter of 2024" said Thomas McNamara, a director for Issuer Solutions w/ S&P Global Market Intelligence spglobal.com/marketintellig…

Short interest in materials sector rises to highest level since February 2020 spglobal.com/marketintellig…

Fading rate cut expectations push US dollar even higher "If the jobs market remains relatively robust and the Fed cuts rates less than expected, US dollar strength would almost certainly be extended" says Jane Foley w/ Rabobank spglobal.com/marketintellig…

Layoffs surge in white collar jobs. Is AI to blame? "If those trends stick in the coming months... that could be evidence in support of the theory that the economy is fundamentally changing due to new technologies," says Julia Pollak spglobal.com/marketintellig…