👉open.substack.com/pub/paolobelve…

The chart displays the historical distribution of S&P 500 rolling 10-day returns since 1950, based on over 19,000 observations. The bell-shaped curve is centered around a mean of +0.4%, reflecting typical short-term market behavior. What stands out is the current reading: a

👉open.substack.com/pub/paolobelve…

The chart displays the MSCI China 12-month forward P/E ratio across three measures: cap-weighted (ex-banks), median stock, and cap-weighted. After peaking in 2021 — when post-Covid euphoria pushed valuations to 28x — Chinese equities have undergone a deep and prolonged de-rating.

👉open.substack.com/pub/paolobelve…

The chart displays market makers' Gamma profile as a function of market moves (ranging from -10% to +10%). The curve shows a positive gamma zone near the current level (peaking around +4k), which quickly shifts into deeply negative territory beyond +2/+3%. The red arrow

👉open.substack.com/pub/paolobelve…

The chart tracks the KOSPI's 12-month forward P/E ratio over its historical range. As of April 17, 2026, the multiple stands at approximately 7.5x, or -2.1 standard deviations below the historical average — a level of extreme undervaluation, clearly highlighted by the red diamond

👉open.substack.com/pub/paolobelve…

The chart overlays the S&P 500 against the CESI US — Citi's index measuring how much macro data beats or misses consensus. Historically the two track reasonably well. But look at the green box: over the past few weeks the SPX ripped higher while the CESI collapsed to cycle lows.

👉open.substack.com/pub/paolobelve…

What's actually driving the market right now? This chart makes it hard to argue with: prediction market odds of the Iran conflict ending by June 30 and the S&P 500 have been moving almost in lockstep. When odds bottomed near 55-57% in late March, the index was sitting below

👉open.substack.com/pub/paolobelve…

The chart tracks the monthly equity rebalancing estimate for US pension funds. The latest reading stands at -$22.8bn, meaning pension funds are expected to sell approximately $23 billion in equities by month-end to realign their allocations. This isn't a distress signal — it's a

The chart shows the SPX dealer gamma profile across spot moves. The key signal sits in the right tail: between 0% and +4%, dealers shift from nearly flat to roughly -$10bn of gamma. When dealers are short gamma they must buy as the market rises and sell as it falls, mechanically

👉open.substack.com/pub/paolobelve…

Upward revisions to Q1 2026 earnings consensus are pretty unusual: analysts typically cut estimates heading into earnings season, not raise them. The +1.7% bump on the S&P 500 since April 1 is already solid, but the detail under the surface is even more interesting: ex-Mag 7 the

The upward revision to MSCI World 2026 earnings is overwhelmingly concentrated in semiconductors, which alone account for over 40% of the total. Add Tech Hardware and Oil & Gas, and you've covered virtually the entire upgrade. Everything else — from banks to pharma to autos —

👉open.substack.com/pub/paolobelve…