#SPX / M2 Rejected at the same spot it was rejected at in 1998. Back then, SPX dropped a little more than 20% over 2 months and then the market rallied one final time before the recession reality set in.

Still not expecting any major change to #SPX until sometime after March OPEX. It could be right after, or it may be delayed until about mid-April (after the next CPI report). I would expect a countertrend rally in the Q2/Q3 timeframe, but timing the exact bottom is hard

Focusing just on Current Conditions in the latest UMich Sentiment survey: *Republicans are realizing conditions aren't quite as rosy as they previously thought. *Democrats are sensing conditions might not be as gloomy as they feared. A notable narrowing of sentiment gaps👇

🚨BRACE for more Bank of Japan rate hikes: Average monthly wages in Japan rose by 3.1% year-over-year, the fastest rate in 32 YEARS. In line with surging inflation, this gives a green light for BoJ to hike in May. The BoJ has already hiked rates 3 times from -0.10% to 0.50%.

BREAKING: Japan’s base pay for workers jumped 3.1% year-over-year in January, the most in 32 years. Wages excluding bonuses and overtime rose 3.0%, the most since July 2024. Japanese salary increases have accelerated over the past year as their labor market has tightened.

People, you can't create a daily or weekly time series of "Global M2" when the United States is only updating M2 on a weekly basis and all others are monthly! You are looking at basically 30 out of 31 days of FX fluctuations with a static once-monthly global aggregate multiplied

“I’m not talking about your altcoin.” 📺youtu.be/wWLGTouVRWk

Oh dear

If you bought #ETH when it went home and feel like you are missing out on #ALT rallies, consider this: The collective altcoin market is down 40% against ETH since ETH went home. We are at the "yes your alt went up, but does it bleed against Ethereum" phase of the cycle

Degens seeing how much their altcoin has fallen against Bitcoin over the last 4 years

Europejskie elity nie rozumieją, co im się właściwie przydarzyło. USA działają już na zupełnie innych zasadach, niż te, które znają🇪🇺biurokraci, cała zgraja tych technokratycznych podstarzałych enfant terrible końca historii w rodzaju von der Leyen. Próbowali negocjować umowę

The time has come: On Wednesday, the Fed will cut rates for the first time in 2025 and "blame" a weak labor market. This will be just the 3rd year since 1996 with Fed rate cuts while the S&P 500 is at record highs. What happens next? Let us explain. (a thread)

No changes to QT: "The Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage‑backed securities."

Regional banking. Something ominous brewing.

🚨Liquidity STRESS is rising: Banks are tapping the Fed’s repo facility at the highest level since 2020. That means they are short on cash, and overnight borrowing costs are rising fast. Liquidity is tightening as QT drains reserves and Treasury bill issuance absorbs cash.

🚨 BREAKING: 🇯🇵 10-year JGB yield climbs 1.5 bps to 1.705%—highest level since June 2008

🚨US MANUFACTURING RECESSION: The ISM Manufacturing Index fell to 48.7 in October, marking the 8th STRAIGHT month of contraction. The US manufacturing sector has been in recession for 34 of the last 36 months.👇 globalmarketsinvestor.beehiiv.com/p/us-stocks-fi…

Why So Many People Were Wrong About Altcoins youtube.com/watch?v=rt4cLr…

Hahaha, tak taka będzie narracja, jak skłiz zrobi ATH na #BTC #Bitcoin. Influ od kalendarzyka też o super cyklu zaczną mówić, ale nie będzie żadnego super cyklu. Zostaniecie z torbami na samym szczycie po FOMO ;)

Don't panic; it gets much worse.