The NFIB Small Business Credit Conditions Index is plummeting (not surprisingly given recent bank failures) and it is now in the same place it was in late 2007/early 2008.

Neil Howe, perhaps the leading demographer in America (he foretold the GFC a decade before it happened) has a new book coming out July 18th titled “The Fourth Turning Is Here”. I could not agree more with his thesis. The Big Reset is nigh.

An IRS agent showed up, unannounced, at my company’s Tampa office today for no legitimate reason.

Turns out the unannounced IRS visitor made a clerical error. Does not induce confidence in the system.

No one, including me, thought the Bills would trade up in the draft for a tight end. But once the receivers were off the board this move is brilliant. Bills need a midfield threat.

The spread between the 2 Year US Treasury yield and the Fed Funds rate has increased 67 basis points since the Fed began its meeting two days ago.

The Fed will not raise rates again.

The Buffalo AKG Art Museum ribbon cutting will be June 12th.

Google “Buffalo AKG Common Sky”, look at the images, and try not to say “Wow!”. Maybe not out loud, but to yourself at least. Let’s Go Buffalo!

Take a look at “Big Wheel III” on the third floor of the new building at the Buffalo AKG. In person is what I mean.

Check out: Aho’s “Ice Cut” Jungwirth’s “Witch’s Flight” Jafa’s “Big Wheel” At the Buffalo AKG Art Museum.

US National Debt has blown through $32 Trillion and is already sprinting toward $33 Trillion. Interest expense on it is of course rising, with the 500 bp Fed hikes a major accelerant. A sizable short term debt stock issued near zero interest a few years back is coming due. Uh oh.

Will be live with Scott Wapner on Fed Day from DoubleLine HQ for the crucial upcoming Fed meeting. Live is always much better than virtual. Do not miss it!

When RFK threw his hat in the ring it seemed unlikely he had any chance. Voice very hard to listen to; he acknowledges & even “apologizes”for it. No need to apologize, sir. I think the voice may be an asset. Makes the scion of a privileged family relatable. RFK has a real chance.

AKG update: Gundlach Building, Albright Bridge, Underground Parking all opening to the public August 3.

At this point I think the anti First Amendment factions should come out of the shadows, draft an Amendment repealing it and put the draft up for ratification. Same with the anti Second Amendment factions. Same with the anti Electoral College factions. Enough of the subterfuge.

US budget deficit is near 9% of GDP in an economy not viewed as being in recession. That means if a year ago we actually (*shock*) balanced the budget, GDP would have been near -6% last 12 months. If rates stay at 5.5% long enough interest payments will go up another $1 TRILLION

And that is $1 Trillion per annum. More than 3% of GDP! Many Americans all too well know the financial tractor pull that is living on credit cards and other debt. Yet they vote for administrations that do exactly that, increasingly, over and over again.

One reason the new building at the Buffalo AKG Art Museum is so successful is the dialogue between internal art (human made) and external art (nature made), is exquisitely balanced.

The AKG has all 33 Clyfford Still paintings in the collection now on view, hung in four of the most beautiful galleries in the world. 31 of them were donated by Still himself. To repeat: By Still himself. No artist donates anything other than their best work. Do not miss it!