Intense to violent tornado on the ground headed for Knox, IN. TAKE SHELTER NOW!

Here are our Key Messages for Sunday (3/15).

The Storm Prediction Center issues Days 4-8 Convective Outlook (Max Risk: 30% Any Severe) at Mar 13, 20:04z spc.noaa.gov/products/exper…

Here are our Key Messages for Monday (3/16).

March 14-15, 2025: An outbreak of 62 tornadoes struck the Central and Southern US. 31 of these tornadoes were significant (EF2+), many of which ravaged northeast AR and southeast MO. Two EF4s were part of this swarm. Thirteen people were killed and 26 were injured. #wxhistory

2:39pm CDT #SPC Day3 Outlook Enhanced Risk: from SC to southern PA spc.noaa.gov/products/outlo…

"PRIMARY CHANGES THIS OUTLOOK ARE TO ADD A 45 TOTAL SEVERE   PROBABILITY ALONG WITH MINOR NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST EXPANSION TO   THE CATEGORICAL RISK AREAS. PORTIONS OF THE REGION, CENTERED ON SC   TO MD, MAY WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A LEVEL 4/MODERATE RISK IN LATER   OUTLOOKS."

Here are our Key Messages for Monday (3/16).

Monday is looking quite impressive. Instability should be higher than tomorrow. And low-level shear should be exceptional during the day. Multiple isolated supercells are likely ahead of the squall line. And given the environment, a major outbreak is possible.

Late March into the first week of April looks quite stormy across the central and southern Plains. Both the CFS and the GEFS weeklies are hinting at western troughing and above-average precipitation in the central U.S. Uptick in tornado potential around March 26 onward.

3:29pm CDT #SPC_MD 0246 , #kywx #inwx #ilwx #tnwx #mswx #mowx #arwx #lawx, spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md…

Tornado Warning including Mountain View MO, Willow Springs MO and Cabool MO until 4:15 PM CDT

A tornado watch has been issued for parts of Arkansas, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri and Tennessee until 11 PM CDT

Call me crazy, but population bias shouldn't affect the objectivity of convective outlooks

Fortunately, the higher-end threat did not materialize today, and that really isn’t much of a surprise, especially given the evening and morning guidance depicting a washed out warm sector which occurred. While many forecasts communicated a rare higher-end wind/tornado threat

To those who fell for the mid-atlantic trap, you should be looking better into your model data... the real target was Western Santa Catarina all along.

Full chat with NWS Storm Prediction Center's Evan Bentley about what went wrong with Monday's MDT Risk forecast and some of the response from the public.. Amazing talk, Evan was a super cool guy, very transparent and I appreciate the time! Sorry I only got a few of your Qs in.. #wxtwitter

this is the real reason why we like weather

if theres one sort of tweet that i dislike the most is the snarky remark that is based off operational runs instead of ensembles. cmon man, it dont take much for you to check the ensembles, which show really strong moisture advection signals for 200+ hours.

:)