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It's genuinely scary that I have no idea if these posts are being paid for by someone and if so who. I increasingly see posts which I *do* know are paid for, but am confident that 90% of people seeing it would have no idea.

Would you flip a coin where 50% chance you die, 50% chance you have the best possible life for as long as you possibly lived, with as many resources as you want?

Wrote up some of my thoughts about this on my Substack davidchee.substack.com/p/would-you-fl…

The next 2 months of my life will be leading the organisation of this conference! Hit me up if you're interested in coming, giving a talk, or sponsoring it.

There's so much alpha using Codebuff in addition to cursor for building, it's already become scary good.

It's exactly 4 weeks until Manifest 2025! Here's a sneak peek of some of the people coming! Nate Silver @ MichaelLewis Scott Alexander Chris Best Robin Hanson Noah Smith 🐇 Emmett Shear Byrne Hobart Aella Patrick McKenzie Joe Carlsmith Allison Duettmann SG roon David Shor

If you follow me, then it seems likely you would like to watch this!

Manifest Day 1 was a smashing success

Organising Manifest 2025 was fun. Winning the poker tournament was funner. Hanging out with you all was the funnest. ❤ Will post lots of photos soon!

I hadn't checked social media for the last 5 days because of organising Manifest. What the hell is going on???

I'll be at this! Knowing Ricki, it'll be a perfect balance of fun, chaos, and meaningful thinking & discussions about design. You should come if you like thinking about game mechanics etc.

SCOOP: Polymarket, the world's biggest prediction market, is nearing a deal to raise more than $200 million in a funding round at over $1 billion valuation. My story for The Information: theinformation.com/articles/polym… #polymarket

The Kalshi team had an incredible time at Manifold Manifest a few weeks ago. We cannot wait to come back and spend time with our fellow forecasters!

Brand new paper on Arxiv with Haiwen Li Soham De Manon Revel Andreas Haupt Brad Miller Keith Coleman 🌱😀🙌 Martin Saveski: Scaling Human Judgment in Community Notes with LLMs Very bullish on the LLM-assisted future of Community Notes 📈

And now that he's worked at every YC company, he applies for YC with a company that teaches engineers how to interview for startups

Very cool, existing mechanisms that prioritise accuracy and truth haven't been able to keep up with decentralised media, which incentivises speed and engagement (divisiveness). Exciting to see innovation in things that have their North Star be truth, but can still keep up.