A new version of our trade war paper is out at the NBER this week. Key update: factoring in tariffs on intermediate inputs nearly wipes out any terms-of-trade gains from reciprocal tariffs and greatly amplifies the cost of retaliation for the US economy.

And so it begins. Can't wait to see how Smith and the UCP try to blame this on someone else.

Powerful text from Bridget Brink: I was U.S. ambassador to Ukraine. I resigned because of Trump's foreign policy. I have proudly served five presidents ― to make sure the United States is the strongest, greatest country that the world has ever known. 1/n

Will Trump’s tariff climbdown save the US from recession? on.ft.com/4kcS2jZ

Populists left and right blame globalization and "Obama-era neoliberalism" for America’s woes. But David Brooks argues the real story is more complex: wage stagnation began earlier, trade losses were overstated, & U.S. prosperity surged, especially post-1990s, not collapsed.

US Court of International Trade just issued decision in case against Trump tariffs filed by Liberty Justice Center and me. All "Liberation Day"/IEEPA tariffs ruled illegal, and blocked by injunction! see link for opinion. I will have much more to say soon: cit.uscourts.gov/sites/cit/file…

Court says Trump doesn't have the authority to set tariffs axios.com/2025/05/28/tru…

Please take a few moments to listen to this remarkable young woman. Her words can inspire all of us. We can build 1EarthVillage to promote cultural understanding and a bigger vision 1earthvillage.org

RIP Stan. Stan was my mentor and my friend. He was an outstanding economist, an outstanding policy maker, but even more importantly, a great human being. Science, commitment, honesty, and humility at the service of humankind. piie.com/publications/p…

No one had more cumulative influence on the macroeconomic policy makers of the last generation than Stanley Fischer. Central Bank governors Ben Bernanke, Mario Draghi and Kazuo Ueda were his students, as were many others like me, who served in other capacities. We all were shaped

a beautiful piece by Lawrence H. Summers on Stan Fischer. piie.com/blogs/realtime…

Modi has been invited by every Chair since 2019 and it is only done with concurrence of others.

Andrew - instead of pontificating, why don’t you suggest what you would do. You are not so stupid as to suggest you would not invite the Pres of the US to a forum which we are only chairing for a year. Let’s be serious for a change.

Wow! A Commerce Secretary commenting on monetary policy, let alone with wrongheaded ill-advised remarks criticizing a first rate & talented public servant. I thought the Treasury Secretary was the chief Admin spokesperson on macro policy. What a chaotic Administration!

Tablesalt 🇨🇦 It isn’t as of Monday they applied. This was chosen by the previous government and the dates and times were set and this received royal ascent in June of 2024. The decision to retroactive it to 2022. Was done then NOT NOW. Fuck Americans are so dumb

Quoted from the FT: “The world’s leading economies have agreed to a deal to spare the US’s largest companies from paying more corporate tax overseas, throwing into doubt the status of the biggest global tax deal in over a century.” This is very sad. Nobody who cares about the

I share Dr. Blanchard's belief that a well designed global minimum tax is in the interest of the world & the United States. I also worry that the US is gutting the global effort to preserve a world where Ireland and Singapore collect more tax from big US firms than the US ...

Highly recommended! "Andrew Crockett Memorial Lecture" by Maurice Obstfeld (lecture on the occasion of the BIS Annual General Meeting) "A US-centric, dollar-based international monetary and financial system (IMFS) was inevitable in the immediate postwar decades considering

We are not close to shift to bitcoin as a general means of payment. (Although I can think of scenarios, which until now I thought as inconceivable, where a President could make it happen, for example by requiring that all prices and payments be labeled in bitcoin, leading people

Tariffs on EU goods just announced: 30% across the board, probably higher in some sectors. Being nice, giving up the digital tax, did not achieve anything for Europe. Intelligent retaliation is of the essence, even if it leads to dangerous economic and geopolitical waters in