Todd Kobayashi, CFA (@tkobi11) 's Twitter Profile
Todd Kobayashi, CFA

@tkobi11

Real Estate Development

ID: 409598403

calendar_today10-11-2011 23:49:04

1,1K Tweet

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The Kobeissi Letter (@kobeissiletter) 's Twitter Profile Photo

For anyone keeping track: It took gold over 5,600 years to hit $1,000/oz for the first time, in 2008, amid the worst financial crisis in US history. Meanwhile, gold prices just rose +$1,000/oz in 28 days. But don't worry, fiat currencies are completely fine.

SilverTrade (@silvertrade) 's Twitter Profile Photo

🚨SILVER SOARING TO $149 IN SHANGHAI!! 🚨Shanghai Silver Premium Goes NUCLEAR to $41.50/oz as COMEX Silver Falls Off a Cliff to $106.72 While #SHFE Silver Goes Vertical!! 🚨 SHFE Silver Just Printed ¥33,488/kilo ($149.77/oz) While COMEX SILVER FLASH CRASHED TO $106! There

🚨SILVER SOARING TO $149 IN SHANGHAI!! 

🚨Shanghai Silver Premium Goes NUCLEAR to $41.50/oz as COMEX Silver Falls Off a Cliff to $106.72 While #SHFE Silver Goes Vertical!! 🚨

SHFE Silver Just Printed ¥33,488/kilo ($149.77/oz) While COMEX SILVER FLASH CRASHED TO $106! 

There
Luke Gromen (@lukegromen) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Last 4 years, the US has told the world by word and deed (seizing Russian FX reserves, seizing Maduro, telling EU "if you don't control it, you don't own it")... ...so don't be surprised when gold gets put on sale, the world buys what can't be seized Realpolitik > "Mr. Slammy"

Last 4 years, the US has told the world by word and deed (seizing Russian FX reserves, seizing Maduro, telling EU "if you don't control it, you don't own it")...

...so don't be surprised when gold gets put on sale, the world buys what can't be seized

Realpolitik > "Mr. Slammy"
Balaji (@balajis) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Like clockwork: Russia is banning the export of 100+ grams of physical gold, about $17k USD at current prices. Expect more states to follow, first with bans and then with seizures if the price really soars. However, they’ll find it harder to do the same to decentralized

Eric Yeung 👍🚀🌕 (@kingkong9888) 's Twitter Profile Photo

In my humble opinion, a meaningful shift toward treating physical gold as a premier global collateral asset, on equal footing with U.S. Treasury bonds, would likely need to precede any adoption of RMB Yuan as a global reserve currency. Furthermore, a gold-to-silver ratio (GSR)

In my humble opinion, a meaningful shift toward treating physical gold as a premier global collateral asset, on equal footing with U.S. Treasury bonds, would likely need to precede any adoption of RMB Yuan as a global reserve currency. 

Furthermore, a gold-to-silver ratio (GSR)
Todd Kobayashi, CFA (@tkobi11) 's Twitter Profile Photo

What stood out on Friday wasn’t just the magnitude of the move in metals, but what volatility did afterward. Silver was down ~30% & gold ~10%, yet both implied & realized vol remained near highs into NY close. That’s unusual. After declines of this size, vol typically compresses

Todd Kobayashi, CFA (@tkobi11) 's Twitter Profile Photo

One of the clearest ways to separate 2011, 2020, & 2026 in gold & silver is COT Z-scores. In 2011, non-commercial positioning was historically extreme, with gold and silver Z-scores above +2 to +3, consistent with late-cycle speculative crowding. Delivery rose briefly but only

Gold Telegraph ⚡ (@goldtelegraph_) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Foreign investors own almost $70 trillion worth of U.S. assets. Not saying this is going to be unwound dramatically overnight, that would be crazy. But the important thing to note: Questions are being asked out loud now, and world leaders are looking to diversify.

Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@tavicosta) 's Twitter Profile Photo

China is moving toward a digital currency that is likely backed by gold. This is a hugely important — and still underappreciated — development. I’m not suggesting this marks the end of the US dollar or anything extreme. But the direction is clear: The world is gradually

Katusa Research (@katusaresearch) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Juan Sartori from Tether Gold was asked for his gold price target. The man sitting on $20 billion in physical gold, buying 3 tons a week, with zero hedges. His answer... "I won't give you a number, although we have it, because you're going to think we are crazy."

Juan Sartori from Tether Gold was asked for his gold price target.

The man sitting on $20 billion in physical gold, buying 3 tons a week, with zero hedges.

His answer...

 "I won't give you a number, although we have it, because you're going to think we are crazy."
Luke Gromen (@lukegromen) 's Twitter Profile Photo

China SHFE gold vault tonnage began rising sharply higher right around the same time that non-monetary gold became the USA's single biggest export for 1st time in 20+ years US exported much of that gold to Switzerland; biggest Swiss gold export destination in that time? China🤔

Todd Kobayashi, CFA (@tkobi11) 's Twitter Profile Photo

These two charts are very important. It’s highly unlikely that foreign central banks are using SHFE to build reserves. The SHFE build however is still highly relevant. It most likely reflects SOEs, trade intermediaries, balance-sheet actors managing surplus and settlement risk

These two charts are very important. It’s highly unlikely that foreign central banks are using SHFE to build reserves.  The SHFE build however is still highly relevant.
It most likely reflects SOEs, trade intermediaries, balance-sheet actors managing surplus and settlement risk
Otavio (Tavi) Costa (@tavicosta) 's Twitter Profile Photo

So much for a hawkish incoming Fed chair. A Fed–Treasury accord that’s about to fundamentally reshape interest rates. None of us own enough hard assets. H/t zerohedge

So much for a hawkish incoming Fed chair.

A Fed–Treasury accord that’s about to fundamentally reshape interest rates.

None of us own enough hard assets.

H/t <a href="/zerohedge/">zerohedge</a>
Luke Gromen (@lukegromen) 's Twitter Profile Photo

The US can… a) Have a much weaker USD and make its own military & critical minerals, or; b) Have a strong USD and have China make most of our military & critical minerals for us. Thank you for listening to my TED talk.

The US can…

a) Have a much weaker USD and make its own military &amp; critical minerals, or;

b) Have a strong USD and have China make most of our military &amp; critical minerals for us.

Thank you for listening to my TED talk.
Todd Kobayashi, CFA (@tkobi11) 's Twitter Profile Photo

How do you capture gold upside with convexity, without using financial leverage? This is where mining equities and royalty companies matter. Miners are often misunderstood as late-cycle commodity trades. In reality, they behave more like early-cycle financial call options on a

Hedgeye (@hedgeye) 's Twitter Profile Photo

China isn’t just producing more cars. They're innovating in EV tech, competing on cost, and scaling faster than the rest of the world. This is one of the most explosive growth stories in global trade.

China isn’t just producing more cars.

They're innovating in EV tech, competing on cost, and scaling faster than the rest of the world.

This is one of the most explosive growth stories in global trade.