Two economies. One savings rate. We started this dialogue in January. James at JB Macro, Tim Pierotti, and Jeff Horwich each traced a channel this spring. We circled back. Top decile saves 18% off appreciating wealth. Bottom 60% saves 1% because 1% is the floor. The 4.0%

“The 4% savings rate is the arithmetic mean of a top decile saving 18% off appreciating wealth, and a bottom 60% saving 1% because 1% is the floor. An average with that much underlying variance isn’t a datapoint. It’s camouflage”. Fire from Bob Sheehan, CFA, CMT

This may be the best analysis I’ve ever read on the k-shaped bifurcation of the US consumer - absolute masterclass.

The Best Trader I Know Doesn’t Care - short essay, real person open.substack.com/pub/wealthvest…

Maybe a bit apples and oranges but no PM at SAC or Point72 ever had a drawdown as ugly as this Mets season and didn’t get a tap on the shoulder.

If higher market multiples are justified by better “composition”, does that hold true if all the incremental earnings growth is coming from deeply cyclical industries (semis and oil) that trade at mid-single digit multiples at cycle peaks?

This seems like it would be the lead story on Bloomberg and everywhere else. Bianco is a credible markets guy for sure but how is it that he is the one breaking this story that there is no real blockade of Iranian oil??

As a Mets Jets fan, the NFL draft day is the most optimistic day of the year

“The 4 big banks loan books grew by 10% YoY in Q1, well above nominal GDP and the fastest pace since the GFC. Regional banks also are sharply accelerating lending by 12% YoY in Q1, and note this was below 0 just a year ago.” Danny has been on the money illustrating the reason for

The market is at all time highs and the yield on $BIZD (BDC ETF) is 13%.

Just six companies account for 70% of the S&P 500's earnings upgrade for 2026. What do all these companies have in common? They are benefiting from shortages: A shortage of oil and more importantly, a shortage of semiconductors. Our latest report discusses how scarcity

Charlie Munger once said never underestimate a man who overestimates himself

Great insight here on the impact of OBBB 100% depreciation of tech capex from one of the truly great players in the game today.

Semis vs The Strait Tech vs Tehran Place your bets

Someone once said that while Larry Summers wanted to prove he was the smartest in the room, Bob Rubin wanted to listen to the smartest in the room. I listen to: Danny Dayan Dan Niles Sam Rahman 𝐏𝐢𝐧𝐞𝐜𝐨𝐧𝐞 𝐌𝐚𝐜𝐫𝐨 Bob Sheehan, CFA, CMT @aahan_prometheus Bob Elliott Peter Boockvar

Last November I'd written on why incentives called for a boom in AI infrastructure. SOX is subsequently up 50%. Today I flesh that out more and walk through why a lesser-known 1985 game theory paper suggests investment is at risk. x.com/brandonjcarl/s…

Gold is a diversifying hedge against inflation, just not right now. In a momo world, with the run it’s had, it’s just another risk asset.

This is a great read

Some stock performance since the conflict in Iran began: $XOM flat $LMT down over 20% $INTC Double! Exactly as expected!!!