The US bond market is beginning to break Long-term yields are still rising While short-term yields are falling History shows this is a MAJOR warning signal A thread 🧵

The US debt crisis intensifies: ~26% of US federal debt is set to mature within the next 12 months, one of the largest portions this century. By comparison, the peak was ~29% in 2020, when interest rates set by the Fed were at 0%. Between 2010 and 2020, this percentage

BREAKING: The Cass Freight Index dropped -7.5% YoY in December, to 0.93, nearly matching the 2020 pandemic lows. This index tracks North American freight shipments and is one of the most important indicators of US shipping activity. This marks the 35th consecutive monthly

Global institutional investors have never held so little cash: Cash allocation by fund managers is down to just 3.2%, the lowest since data began in the 1990s. This marks a -1.6 percentage point decline since April, one of the fastest drops since the survey started. Cash

#Commodities The Bloomberg Commodity Total Return Index is heading for another record weekly close, up 4% and marking its strongest three-week run in almost four years. While precious metals continue to do most of the heavy lifting, the energy sector also posted solid gains this

One thing that is catching my eye is the rapid deceleration in the Truflation index. It’s a noisy series and one that I’m not going hang my hat on too much, but the year-over-year rate is now down to 1.72%, while the Truflation core index yoy change has fallen to 1.60%.

The Dollar Index is breaking down, trading at its lowest level since Oct. The dollar is within half a percent of hitting a new record low against the Swiss franc. Renewed dollar weakness will only fuel rallies in precious metals and other commodities and pressure bonds lower.

For the first time ever, the U.S. is spending more on interest payments ($1.20T) than on national defense ($1.16T). The cost of past debt now exceeds the cost of protecting the nation. The bill for decades of borrowing has come due.

BREAKING: The odds of another government shutdown by January 31st surge to 75%, per Polymarket. Less than 3 months later, the government shutdown is back.

A copper shortage is coming next: The world economy is projected to face a copper deficit of 10 million tonnes by 2040, equivalent to ~33% of current global demand. This comes as global copper demand is estimated to surge to 42 million tonnes by 2040, from 28 million tonnes in

Gold is up over $100, trading above $5,085. Silver is up over $5, trading above $108.25, both at new record highs. Most people are clueless about what this means and are in for quite a shock. Those of us who understand have been expecting the economic crisis that’s about to hit.

Solar panel production costs are skyrocketing due to silver: Silver now reflects a record 29% of total solar panel production costs. This marks a dramatic surge from 15% last year, as silver prices have more than tripled. By comparison, in 2024 and 2023, the proportion was 11%

One much underappreciated economic problem for the eurozone is the almost 20% depreciation in the dollar's exchange rate against the euro. This has had a much bigger effect than the tariffs. It was also foreshadowed in Stephen Miran's Mar-a-Lago paper, which called for a dollar

BREAKING: Gold has officially overtaken US Treasuries in central bank FX reserves for the first time in at least 20 years. Global official gold holdings at market price are up to $5.0 trillion, surpassing foreign official Treasury holdings of $3.9 trillion. Gold holdings have

A legitimately strong move in the ISM manufacturing index today, which is echoed in many of the PMIs abroad (so I don’t see it as a fluke). The global manufacturing sector appears to be recovering following last year’s tariff turbulence.

In my view, commodities (including precious metals) continue to serve as important diversifiers in this era of fiscal dominance, regardless of who finances the debt and how. The somewhat cosmic looking chart below shows commodities and bonds since the cyclical bull started in

BREAKING 🚨: Commercial Real Estate Office CMBS Delinquency Rate hits 11.7%, the highest level in history 👀

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Europe, and to a lesser extent the US, are about to be hit by an inflation tsunami.

Europe will love Tesla self-driving! Due to the extreme regulatory burden of the EU, which in general stifles innovation in Europe, Tesla owners there have been stuck with basic lane-following.