I dug into Polymarket’s top ~15k traders' on-chain activity. Check my findings below 👇

Your Polymarket book has a hidden cost. 2,082 wallets active on both Polymarket and Hyperliquid . The PM bets are not capital efficient. HIP-4 will change this... Full research pinned.

I tracked 2,082 wallets that are active on both Polymarket and Hyperliquid. Then I pulled their entire DeFi footprint. Every protocol, every chain, every position. Here are some fun facts: > Prediction markets are a side bet. These wallets hold $477M in on-chain assets.

Are you missing profits by touching grass on weekends? Data from 2k top whales active on Hyperliquid + Polymarket: - Perps slow (only 24% of HL fills on weekends) - Polymarket turns into a 15-min BTC casino for these whales - Most profitable strategy seems to be: Open on

I extended my research and mapped every Polymarket wallet to Hyperliquid Out of 3 million PM users, 100,693 are also active on Hyperliquid. That’s only 3.3% of users. But those 100k wallets generate ~12% of all Polymarket volume, $6.1 billion in trades. From the other

As I dig deeper into 90%+ bets on Polymarket, I’m starting to think people are reading these markets the wrong way. The question I keep coming back to What’s more profitable: 90%+ bets on Polymarket or supplying USDC on Aave? Full analysis soon.

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I found 139K wallets using Polymarket as a yield product. But how they access it in the near future will determine their ROI (similar to how people use Morpho for RWAs) Example: "China invades Taiwan by end of 2026". No, sitting at 91¢. On Polymarket: With $10k you collect

I went through 92.2 million resolved sure bets on Polymarket. Every trade where someone bought an outcome at 90¢ or higher. 94¢ is the sweet spot. highest ROI at 2.56%, win rate just under 96%. below that you take on more risk for barely more return. above that the profit

Tracked down Polymarket's most profitable sure-bettors from my previous research. 47 wallets, $20.9M sitting in 90¢+ positions. Built a UI for it: 0xfleck.com/resources/sure…

LucasMeow is sitting on $99,000 of trapped capital. He didn't lose it. He didn't spend it. It's just sitting in two accounts that don't know each other exist. Throwback to my HIP-4 piece. I took the 2,082 dual users' real books. Live Hyperliquid perps and open Polymarket

I was curious whether Polymarket whales are using the platform for tax reduction, so I reconstructed the realized PnL of 4,652 wallets across 6.26M trades Do PM traders dump losers in Q4? 74% of wallets concentrated the majority of their loss realization into Oct-Dec. And then

Sure bets on Polymarket are going mainstream, as DeFi safe yields are at lows: > 32k new wallets entered the sure-bet trade in the last 8 days. > Wallet count nearly doubled, from 36K to 68K. > Almost all small entries under $100. Median is $10. But the trend is real. If you

I scanned every trade ever made on Polymarket looking for insider trading patterns. 135 GB of on-chain data. 138,967 resolved markets. 1.2 billion trades. One wallet placed $706K on the ETH ETF approval. 90 seconds before the news hit the wire. Full analysis soon.

Every major US political event of 2024 moved on Polymarket before the news broke. Different wallets. Same pattern Article tomorrow

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Aave is sitting on hundreds of millions in potential bad debt from a single bridge exploit. Couple of weeks ago I found that 75% of Polymarket sure bet capital already outperforms Aave's yield. Today you can add "no bridge risk" to the list.