When they ask you about your risk tolerance.

The chart of US 10 year real yields is quite something...its one mega trend to ongoing negative real rates. Does this continue? My guess is with the debt burden as is, financial repression is here for a lot longer than most imagine. 1/

Good luck with that tapering... My view is that growth is going to be much slower than expected in Q3 and the CB's will be looking to do more QE, not less.

Germany to Allow Institutional Funds to Hold up to 20% in Crypto bloomberg.com/news/articles/… via Bloomberg Markets

Just writing Global Macro Investor and dont want to spoil it in advance but so many people look at on chain analysis for BTC and forget ETH. On chain data + August 4th + network growth = ludicrous, ludicrous supply shortage (double ludicrous for emphasis in case you missed it)

If you care about ETH, you might want to watch this clip from today. I probably gave away too much of my thinking… oh well. Enjoy the weekend all!

60% of Israel is fully vaccinated (US = 51%)

Without naming names, did you know the mean age of the most vocal inflationists is nearly 70? Starting their careers during that rare decade-long inflation breakout and that experience is seared in their memories. Seems to be an age bias on the call of future massive inflation.

What if all the so-called economic growth is actually an illusion created by 0% interest rates and QE. What if even tapering QE is enough to cause that illusion to fade? If economic conditions appear to justify a #taper, merely starting the processes may reverse those conditions!

Last year, I argued that ESG was the most overhyped, and oversold concept in business (bit.ly/3lnozXw), and heard from people who felt I was missing its good points. After a year of searching, I still cannot find them.. bit.ly/3nwSP4N

Building permits over last four months are now down close to 17%. The last three times we saw that kind of weakness, we were in a recession or headed into one.

The yields on a 5-year U.S. Treasury is now 3.94%, the highest since Nov. of 2007. 5.25% will be the highest in 22 years. The low interest rate environment that has propped up an overly-indebted U.S. economy is crumbling. Soon the entire house of cards built on top will collapse.

"Once inflation is above 5% in advanced economies, it takes on average 10 years to drop to 2%" - BofA

Inflation has been the big story of 2022, driving markets and pushing central banks and policy makers to react. I update my posts from earlier this year on inflation to reflect what we learned this summer about inflation's persistence & unpredictability. bit.ly/3RhUiXM

"With Druckenmiller's recent prophecy that markets will remain flat over the next 10 years, it seems like a good time to share an update on the chart below. With this in mind, it's easy to see where he may have gotten such a morbid outlook on equities." tier1alpha.com

'When S&P 500 profits exceed NIPA profits by 20%, it is a signal that reported profits are being generated largely by accountants. Usually this means that the economy is on the brink of a recession and that the stock market is about to take a beating.' haymaker.substack.com/p/guest-haymak…

This is the best fxckin tweet thread I’ve read all day…

I've lived in China for 30 years, and I've never seen such a brazenly open and sustained expression of rage against the PRC govt. WeChat is exploding with protest videos and furious vitriol, and civil disobedience is becoming rampant. This is a serious test of CCP governance.

Should flying between Canberra and Sydney be abolished? The French Gov.recent ban short-haul domestic flights between cities that are connected by a train or bus trip of less than two and a half hours has sparked debate this week Australia could follow theguardian.com/environment/co…