Sugar Market Monthly Recap - Nov 2025 Sugar prices fell early in Nov on record Brazilian exports but later rebounded off 14c support, aided by macroeconomics & improving ethanol competitiveness. See key Nov events in our animation below.

EU exports have been trending lower in the 25/26 season, at 149k tons, which corresponds to a hefty reduction of -45.8% YoY. So far, this is consistent with a smaller EU sugarbeet crop this season.

Australia’s sugarcane crop came in below expectations, with 27.7m tons crushed versus the Australian Sugar Manufacturers’ early estimate of 29.9m. It remains bigger than last season’s historically small crop, but the growth was only about +7% YoY amid wet-weather disruptions

UNICA report out today shows the sugar mix reducing in Brazil's CS (1H Nov mix at 35.5% vs 44.6% a year ago) while cane crush and sugar production were down by a hefty –21% and –33% YoY, respectively, in the 1H Nov.

Brazil sugar stocks declined to 11.17m tons in Nov, still slightly below the 5Y average of 12.33m tons. Moving forward, domestic stocks tend to decline, while Brazil enters its off-season.

Thailand’s sugarcane crush is running behind last year at this point in the 25/26 season. As of Dec 18th, 6.12mons had been crushed versus 8.17m tons a year ago. Given the larger crop projection, the lag likely reflects rain-related harvest delays.

Congrats to the December 2025 Coffee Trader’s Course graduates! It’s always a pleasure spending the week discussing the coffee market with other professionals. Thanks to everyone who participated! Stay tuned, we’ll be announcing our 2026 course dates in the new year.

Commodity Index Fund 2026 Rebalance In this blog, we analyze what this year’s rebalance is likely to mean for coffee, cocoa, cotton, and sugar by estimating the number of futures lots that need to be bought or sold in each. coffeetradingacademy.com/post/commodity…

Sugar white premium continues to hold below $100, indicating comfortable refined sugar supply. Standalone refiners, particularly in higher-cost regions, are operating at thin or negative margins. White premium might stay under pressure, post Oct harvests.

Sugar Market Year Recap - 2025 Sugar moved into a bear market in 2025 as a large Brazilian crop with record sugar mix, combined with ideal off-season weather in India and Thailand, contributed to driving expectations of a 25/26 surplus. See key 2025 events in our animation

Brazil's Center-South cumulative 25/26 sugar production disclosed at 40.15m tons as of mid-Dec (+0.86% YoY). Sugar mix continues to reduce, at 31.47% vs 36.3% in the prior year. Mills have stopped crushing, so production figures unlikely to change materially in upcoming reports.

Brazil sugar stocks disclosed at 8.95m tons in Dec, 14% below 5Y avg of 10.4m tons and 7.7% below 10Y avg of 9.7m tons. Brazil is now in the off-season, and so it’s consuming stocks while no new crop flows.

Price parity between ethanol and gasoline in Brazil currently at ~72.3%. In contrast to the last few months, gasoline is now the cost-effective option for end consumers (as vehicle fuel). Data can be interpreted as adverse for ethanol demand.

Thailand’s 25/26 sugarcane crush continues to trail last year's volume, despite weather being predominantly dry. As of Jan 25th, 40.7m tons had been crushed versus 45.7m tons a year ago. the lag seemingly reflects labor shortages and rain-related harvest delays early in the

Ethanol is still trading at a firm 2.1c premium over sugar in Brazil, reinforcing a stronger financial incentive for mills to favor ethanol production (over sugar) this year. The last time Brazil experienced a similar ethanol premium over sugar, the sugar mix was much lower, at

EU sugar stocks reported at 10m tons as of Nov 2025, up 12.3% from 8.9m tons a year earlier and 16.9% above the 5-year average of 8.5m tons. Inventories are building alongside the 25/26 new-crop flow, in line with the typical Aug–Jan accumulation period.

Brazil's CS acc. 25/26 sugar production at 40.23m tons as of mid-Jan (+0.65% YoY). Brazil is currently in off-season, when plants that will form the next crop are growing, so production figures won't change materially in new reports. Safe to conclude Brazil CS harvested a ~40.3m

EU sugar exports are broadly in line with the 5Y avg so far in 25/26, while -14% below year ago figures. Imports remain low, much like in the previous season. At only 227k tons, imports are down by a hefty -58.4% vs the 5Y avg.

India has just approved an additional 500k tons of sugar export quota for the 2025/26 season, raising the total allowed export quota from 1.5m to 2.0m tons. Additional exports ultimately allowed because the crop is large relative to domestic needs.