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New article out in The Conversation comparing 2015 to 2024. First publication as part of our work with Oliver Heath & Chris Prosser on voting behaviours over time. #GE2024 #GeneralElection #ElectionStats #VotingHistory theconversation.com/ten-seats-wher…

In this blog with GB Historical GIS Chris Prosser we look at how residents in the new constituencies have voted since 1997, and which places have most closely followed the national outcome: theconversation.com/election-2024-…

Exit poll seats by liklihood: 80%+ Lab 369 80%+ Con 80 80%+ LD 45 80%+ Reform 5 80%+ SNP 4 80%+ PC 3 80%+ Green 2 Too close to call 124 seats

We'd expect a big Reform vote in H &SS. If anything, it's slightly lower than expected. But I'm not terribly keen on using the exit poll to discuss individual seats - not really designed for that. Let's wait and see.

It's Curtice Time. As night follows day, so the overnight #Election2024 BBC programme now follows our Exit Poll exertions. Thanks again to the brilliant psepholgists' team. You know who you are! Prof Sir John now doing TV analysis (and being filmed and photographed doing that!)

First result in. Labour up on 2019 but down on 2017; and Reform up on Ukip 2015. Tories worse than 1997. Based on redistricted data with GB Historical GIS

Similar story in Blyth

John Curtice saying that the first two seats fit with the broad picture of the exit poll, although the Reform share is actually slightly less than it had forecast in those seats

My take on the main reasons the Conservatives lost the election yesterday: electionsetc.com/2024/07/05/how…

For those - foolishly in my view - extrapolating from a low overall vote share (caused by all sorts) and a small number of inner city results - ultimately this is likely what will determine the success of Labour in winning a second term.

bbc.co.uk/news/articles/…

Once the dust has settled, join us on 16 July to discuss the 2024 general election: the campaign, the result and the parliament ahead. Speaking will be Meg Russell, Alan Renwick, Dr Sofia Collignon and co-creator of MRP polling Ben Lauderdale. Sign up 👉 ucl.ac.uk/constitution-u….

Our article at Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews Climate Change is now out. In it, we present the results of our systematic review of the literature on politicians and climate change. See below for further details. doi.org/10.1002/wcc.908

My interview with @MichaelBCerny The Carter Center on the US and China results from the UN Development Peoples' Climate Vote 2024 survey: uscnpm.org/2024/07/23/ste…

@MichaelBCerny talks with Steve Fisher at University of Oxford about the UN Development's Peoples' Climate Vote project. Turns out the whole world is done with major powers dragging their feet on climate change. uscnpm.org/2024/07/23/ste…

🌍 What could this year of elections mean for our planet? Join BBC Climate Editor Justin Rowlatt & special guests @stephendfisher GonzaloMunozAbogabir Rachel Kyte & Tori Tsui at our #Climate Briefing for the latest climate developments. FREE, online, Thurs 12 Sep: bit.ly/ClimateCreativ…

Congratulations to our former student and Trinity College MCR president Eilidh Macfarlane on the publication of her new paper, from research she completed as part of her DPhil at Sociology at Oxford and supervised by our Politics Fellow Steve Fisher! x.com/EMMacfarlane_/…