Also based on the Westminster MRPs, adjusted for which major parties are standing, this is how I'd group the PCC races. First two columns are what the Tories have to win to be at the support levels indicated by MRPs. Third column is roughly the good/bad battlegrounds.

always bet against cowley. good rule for life

Incredible that the Garrick managed to maintain this secret rule that none of its members knew about until the Guardian reported on it

When I saw this story, about Heineken uprooting an orchard because people aren't buying cider any more, I initially wondered whether they'd felled some ancient woodland.

Then I got to the line that explained the trees were planted in 1997.
bbc.com/news/articles/…

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UoM student encounters Maurice Cowling, c.1967.

How much local elections can tell us about general elections has limits and is filled with caveats, but here are a few things I think are worth looking out for if you want to assess 'good night, bad night' on those terms.

YouGov had Khan 47 Hall 25 yesterday. London polling is difficult but that’s a big gap between pollsters. Savanta’s numbers are closer to what I’d expect but we’ll see soon.

I wrote in Getting Over New Labour that on the basis of people’s experience of Starmer’s leadership, much Labour policy has a provisional aura… this was one of the packages I had in mind.

Yes, and I'd argue N Yorkshire is the easiest good/bad shorthand. Looking at the GE MRPs, Labour should win East Mids comfortably, but N Yorks is a tossup when making reasonable adjustments for no Reform candidate. To be doing better than those MRPs, Tories need clear win there.

Philip Cowley Some in the media have fallen for the CCHQ line that even *scraped* wins in (either of) Tees Valley or West Mids represent a not great night for Labour. I've heard the line repeated on various BBC shows. Peter K simplifies the situation with this table: Those types of results

Part of the reason such a high figure is unlikely - more than half the number they’re defending - is that a third of the seats contested were last fought in years other than the Tory peak of 2021. They’ve already lost the vulnerable and marginal seats in that group.

Your regular reminder that seat gains and losses are a bad way of comparing local elections, and that the Conservatives talking about 500 losses is pure expectation management.

Nice artwork from The House magazine for my piece in the latest issue. Free to read (along with all the other articles) here: library.myebook.com/thehouse/the-h…