1/ The latest PMI figures released before "Liberation Day" indicate that the US is experiencing the strongest inflationary pressures globally, and these pressures are rising rapidly. The increase in tariffs is expected to exacerbate this situation, as it is inflationary only for

1/ New US tariffs and impact . The US import-weighted average tariffs applied increases to 31% from a previous 30% (static) and declines to 16% from 20% dynamically (taking into account a decrease in the volume of imports). . If the increase is directly passed on to US consumers,

#Eurozone trade surplus jumped to €21bn in Feb, the highest since Jan 2024 as exports surged by 4.5% m/m. Frontloading ahead of US tariffs fueled a record €22.2bn trade surplus with the US. Both exports & imports are running >trend backed by a strong momentum & Q1 carry-over.

In #Germany, hard data skewed by frontloading ahead of US tariffs. March factory orders (+3.6% m/m) & industrial output surged (+3% m/m), led by pharma, autos, machinery. Q1 momentum improved but output still <capacity. Sentiment low; tariffs a risk, but infra & defense may help.

The reduction in tariffs on China from 145% to 30% significantly lowers the US static effective tariff from 27% to 15%, but does not change the dynamic effective tariff, which remains at 14%. This is because a high rate (155%) was applied to a low volume, and the opposite for the

1/ April PMI data shows strong inflation pressure in the US, as tariffs are inflationary for those imposing them. In Germany and the eurozone, pressures are low, making the ECB's job easier than the Fed's

In May, #Germany's ZEW survey expectations soared to 25.2 (+39.2pts), bouncing back from April losses. This boost likely reflects tariff progress, a new government, and eased financing conditions. Profit expectations surged for banking and export sectors like auto and pharma.

In a 'sea-change policy shift', Berlin signalled to Paris it will not oppose French efforts to ensure nuclear power is treated on par with renewable energy under EU law, French and German officials said. on.ft.com/4koGjyv

The increase in EU tariffs from 10% to 50% raises the US dynamic effective tariff from 14% to almost 18%. The impact on US inflation rises by 0.5ppt to 2.2%, while the negative effect on growth increases by 0.4ppt to 1.6%. The negative impact on European growth rises by 0.5ppt

1/ After a solid first half of the year, July saw a sharp slowdown driven by contracting domestic demand. Our Q3 GDP nowcast points to a contraction of more than 2% q/q annualised, the weakest quarterly pace since early 2022

1/ After a solid first half, July’s contraction was confirmed in August. Chinese activity data show domestic demand still driving the slowdown. Our Q3 GDP nowcast points to a contraction of >2% q/q annualised, implying y/y growth of 1.8% vs 5.2% in Q2