The new von der Leyen Commission will be a center-right / right-center Commission, which will be both culturally and politically more attuned to Meloni’s ECR and Orban’s Patriots than to the Greens/EFA in the EU Parliament 🌍. Here’s why 🧵 1. Without the votes of the Greens, Ursula von der Leyen would

👏Our warmest congratulations to @AlumniEUI Vicente Valentim on the release of his new book!📚 We can't wait to hear more about it at the Swiss Chair Seminar Series this October, organized by Elias Dinas. Stay tuned for an exciting discussion!

A key point: “half of the new College of Commissioners will be EPP (13) , mostly in charge of key portfolios …plus 2 ECR, what will give vdL 2.0 a permanent (center-right) majority.” Put another way: the EPP will be pivotal in the Commission, as they now are in the EP

This is a must-read for anyone interested in the future of progressive politics. An outstanding collection of papers, from a top notch team, and the overarching analysis and empirical evidence have important political and policy implications.

Makes sense: close to Macron and embraces his view on EU issues. But it’s a shame 🇫🇷 didn’t use this opportunity to put forward a female candidate. I can think of several women who wh have been excellent substitutes for Breton.

Here’s the PROPOSED new EU Commission led and dominated by Ursula von der Leyen featuring : - mostly unknown national politicians, predominantly ‘yes men’ (the likes of Borrell/Breton gone) - predominantly and unprecedentedly coming from the EPP and the right and far right to mimic

Key data points on the proposed EU Commission and a prediction: 🔹 15 out of 27 Commissioners-designate come from EPP + 2 from the right of the EPP: with 17/27 this is the most right-wing EU Commission ever 🔹 only 2 Commissioner-designate are former PM, and a handful

Another new article available now! Written by Thomas G. Fleming (UCL London Office), Simon Hix (European University Institute), and Radoslaw Zubek (University of Oxford), "The origins of centralized agenda control at Westminster: Consensus or controversy?" can be read at the link below: onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.11…

UK in a Changing Europe UK in a Changing Europe - spearheaded so brilliantly by Anand Menon - has done essential work improving the quality of evidence-based policy debate in the UK and enhancing the societal impact of academic research. What a shame that ESRC will no longer support this.

📕 The Transformation of the Left in Emerging Knowledge Societies Thanks to ruth dassonneville Simon Hix and Peter A. Hall for endorsements OPEN ACCESS tinyurl.com/ahuxx6d6 3 🧵 on key findings. Today: Motivations of Vote Choice IPZ - Political Science UZH University of Zurich Cambridge University Press - Politics 1/6

With the list of nominated Commissioners confirmed, the make-up of the EU institutions is taking shape. Here's a graphic to illustrate the balance of power - EPP in a pivotal position - potential majorities on the Right - Left significantly weakened (ht Alberto Alemanno)

If Bjørn Høyland and I are right about the relationship between EU policy outputs and public support, with a heavily Right-leaning EU, the progressive Left is likely to become more critical of the EU in the coming years. #YouHeardItHereFirst

Harris now ahead in PA but tied nationally 🤷‍♂️. I’m starting to be very sceptical of the US Presidential polls.

Increasingly allergic to the quiet polisci norm that empirical papers should come up with elaborated theories/expectations first even if effectively they're intuitions from the process of data exploration. We/I have been inculcated this is the way to present but often doesnt work

Not surprised by this, eg. I always say to my PhD students that doing a PhD is less an intellectual challenge (they are clearly smart enough, as they got into the programme) than a psychological challenge (persuading themselves they can finish the PhD)

Excellent piece by ⁦Jennifer Rankin⁩, on Von der Leyen and changing power relations in the Commission theguardian.com/world/2024/sep…

If this model of voter transitions is correct, the new left-wing populist #BSW gained most votes from other left parties (SPD&Left) but (contrary to some expectations) hardly hurt the #AfD. Flipping the perspective, BSW hoovered up much of the Left's former support 1/2

I wrote for ⁦The Guardian on⁩ the British government’s efforts to copy Italy’s migration pact with Albania, memory and colonialism, the flaws of pragmatism, and the logic behind all that. theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

Why do East Germans vote for the far-right AfD? We may have a new answer. It turns out, East Germans misperceive the grievances *other* citizens hold. The good news: if you tell East Germans that grievances are not as bad, AfD vote intentions go down. Here’s the experiment we ran

👅Can moral language boost pro-immigrant messages and be as effective as anti-immigrant messages? ➡️Kristina Bakkær Simonsen shows that pro-immigrant actors are not always bound to lose against the anti-immigrant side cambridge.org/core/journals/… #FirstView #OpenAccess