There are people who think student loan debt relief could be a 'lifeline' for Biden's reelection campaign.

I'm far from sure of that. Over Good Authority (from the team that published TMC), I explain why:

goodauthority.org/news/questiona…

In the latest Good Authority (from the team that published TMC) podcast, I chat with Ken Opalo and kim yi dionne (@dadakim.bsky.social) about recent military coups and the rise of economic populism. I learned a lot from the conversation. Check it out here or wherever you get your podcasts. goodauthority.org/news/dont-call…

This is important context. The crackdown on protests at some colleges this week is the culmination of years of changing policy.

Why did the House finally pass Ukraine aid? New Good Authority (from the team that published TMC) post on institutional & electoral forces shaping Speaker Johnson’s choices.

With shout outs to Rufus Miles 🤓, John Kingdon and Jordan Tama …

goodauthority.org/news/why-the-h…

In last week there’s been renewed interest in my research on protests. 1960s data I use excludes campuses but I suspect dynamics are similar: protests generate headlines, and reactions by authorities matter for who media and public perceive as sympathetic. x.com/owasow/status/…

Don't look now, but Biden's standing with Black and Latino voters is almost where it was at this point in 2020.

Just-published research shows that partisan election officials don't appear to favor their own party. New from me Good Authority (from the team that published TMC):

goodauthority.org/news/partisan-…

Nice new paper by Amory Gethin and @vinpons shows what we also found in our book on the 2020 election:

BLM protests after George Floyd HELPED Democrats on average.

The new paper: nber.org/papers/w32342

Our book: amazon.com/dp/0691213453?…

On modern escalation- the tricky game of missile and drone brinkmanship. Great to work with the team Good Authority (from the team that published TMC) and feature work by Erik Lin-Greenberg Sarah Kreps and others. goodauthority.org/news/iran-is-p…

Black and Hispanic voters are trending toward Biden. In other words, Democratic-leaning groups are shifting toward the Democratic candidate. Exactly the scenario we wrote about a month ago: goodauthority.org/news/how-much-…

Thanks to Matt for producing and updating these graphs.

Very excited to have these folks aboard at Good Authority!

How does politics affect how resources are allocated? @leahrosenstiel finds where the federal government provides public goods and financial assistance depends on who has power within Congress and constituents' characteristics.
#APSR
#APSR FirstView
ow.ly/kbAB50RfkgW

Very quietly, RFK Jr.’s average vote share in national polls has been shrinking in since he announced his independent bid in October:

Oct: 13.2%
Nov: 13.5%
Dec: 11.2%
Jan: 9.7%
Feb: 11.3%
Mar: 9.9%
Apr (so far): 8.0%

🧵For those looking for teaching or background resources, here are some Good Authority (from the team that published TMC) posts to help put this weekend's events in the Middle East in context. First, Austin Carson on escalation control between adversaries, from the aftermath of Oct 7: 1/

goodauthority.org/news/will-the-…

Good reminder that non-college whites are not a monolith — many of them are not “working class” at all! — which has implications for how campaigns target and the press should cover them. Also, good myth-busting about the supposed vanishing relationship between wealth & voting R.

I have a new FiveThirtyEight piece out, 'The less you vote, the more you back Trump.'

It reports a striking finding from a new NORC survey: more frequent voters are more pro-Biden & less frequent voters are more pro-Trump.

1/2

abcnews.go.com/538/vote-back-…

🧵on a few interesting nuggets from our story this week on lessons from our 50K YouGov polling sample (economist.com/united-states/…): (1/x)