“You get recessions, you have stock market declines. If you don’t understand that’s going to happen, then you’re not ready, you won’t do well in the markets.” - Peter Lynch

Source: Charlie Bilello

#Oil prices are now down nearly 10% from their highs as fears over higher interest rate policy spread.
With markets now seeing less than 2 rate cuts in 2024, demand outlook is questionable. This has put oil prices at their lowest level since March 28th.
However, prices are still…

Consensus #earnings estimates are projecting +3% YoY EPS Growth for the $SPX in Q1. Last quarter, Wall Street was also modelling +3% EPS Growth and the realized number came in at +8%.

Source: David Marlin, Goldman Sachs

BREAKING: Tesla has officially lowered the monthly FSD subscription price to $99/month (from $199/month).

The 10y annualized return of US Treasuries has dropped to a 65-year low of 0.6%. The 2020s era of war, protectionism, fiscal excess, scarce energy/housing/labor killed the 4 decades-long bond bull market.

Source: BofA; HolgerZ

Our new GPT-4 Turbo is now available to paid ChatGPT users. We’ve improved capabilities in writing, math, logical reasoning, and coding.
Source: github.com/openai/simple-…

As highlighted by Robin Brooks, #Japan has a current account surplus and is a big net creditor to the world. So the falling #yen isn't about any of that. Instead, it's about Japan's huge #debt load, which forces #BoJ to keep rates low even as they rise everywhere else. A fiscal…

Yesterday was very painful for diversified 60-40 ( #equities / #bonds ) portfolios

Source: Bloomberg

Interest rate futures are now pricing in just 2 interest rate cuts for the entire 2024.
This is the first time that markets are pricing-in LESS rate cuts than #Fed guidance.
Just 4 months ago, markets saw 6-8 rate cuts in 2024 with cuts beginning in March.
Odds of a rate cut in…

Total Cash Net of Debt...
Google $GOOGL: $98 billion
Apple $AAPL: $65 billion
Meta $META: $47 billion
Amazon $AMZN: $28 billion
Microsoft $MSFT: $20 billion
Nvidia $NVDA: $16 billion

Source: Charlie Bilello

Amazing #chart by Quartr. It's quite astonishing: despite the NASDAQ 100's special mid-2023 rebalancing, the combined weight of $MSFT, $AAPL, $NVIDIA, $AMZN, $GOOGL, and $META still constitutes a substantial 38% of the index. 
Without this rare adjustment, the second of its kind…

Getting better…

The first ever 2x and -2x spot bitcoin ETFs hit the market yesterday from ProShares. $BITU and $SBIT (tickers could have been better).
$BITX is 2x but it tracks futures and $BITI is -1x but is also futures.
Fee 95bps on both.
Haven't traded too much so far, under $1m.

Source:…

Bond #yields up and #gold up? This looks like a classic 1970s action, with the inverse relationship between gold and 10-year Treasury yields starting to decouple. Gold is at all-time highs in the face of bond market weakness. This, coupled with the rise in #commodity prices

#Oil prices have officially broken above $85.00 for the first time since October 2023. Since the December 2023 low, oil prices are up over 25% as #geopolitical tensions have escalated.
This comes as PPI, CPI and PCE inflation all posted year-over-year increases in February.

At 905 million shares, per the latest SEC filings -- #Apple is Berkshire's largest holding, by some estimates accounting for about 45-50% of its stock portfolio.
Two Years:
BRKB +20%
AAPL -1%

Source: Lawrence McDonald

The Turtle Traders program by Pedma (on X)
This is Richard Dennis. In 18-years, he turned $400 into $200,000,000.
He wanted to prove that trading could be taught to anyone.
So he started the Turtle Traders program. Over the next 4 years, the Turtles earned a combined profit of…

Americans, Canadians and Australians work about 30% more hours per year than people in #europe . How long will Europe be able to retain this luxury? 

Source: Michel A.Arouet, The Economist

Morgan Stanley is mapping out the #AI infrastructure value chain.

Source: Eric Jhonsa

A huge week ahead as we kick off Q2 2024
In the US: 
1. US ISM Manufacturing PMI data – Monday
2. US JOLTs Job Openings data – Tuesday
3. OPEC Meeting – Wednesday
4. Fed Chair Powell Speaks – Wednesday
5. February US Jobs Report – Friday
6. Total of 14 Fed speaker events this…