High bond yields don't cause recessions, it's recessions that cause bond yields to stop being high.

Yellen has no control over the size of the deficit.

Need to be able to distinguish between Powell Liquidity, Yellen Liquidity, and Biden Liquidity to accurately describe the economy.

The privately held supply of Treasury debt.

Where does the credit impulse stand vs. the fiscal impulse?
If we divide the loans and leases of US commercial banks by the debt held by the public, we get a metric that approximates the relationship between private sector debt and public sector debt. It looks like this:

There

The Fed needs to cut rates to cool off surging demand

Stephanie Kelton Ritik Goyal Warren B. Mosler Ritik discussing relationship between TGA and the Fed at 44m14s youtu.be/qw2dZ4iA70U&t=…

Thanks Stephanie Kelton

Had a great discussion with Daniel on the interplay of business cycles and monetary/fiscal policy!

To steal from Warren B. Mosler, the CB policy error discussion is like worrying that the kid in the back seat is going to crash the car

Quarterly Refunding Astrology

Fed holding rates high is just keeping the inflation rate permanently elevated. The quickest way for the Fed to reduce inflation would be to cut rates to zero.

Just have to bring back Fisher, and things become a bit clearer.

High rates = high nominal growth
Low rates = low nominal growth
At turning points, both change direction together.

2020-24 was a validation of MMT's claims:
- The government had no issues spending trillions of dollars in a month
- That spending was able to get inflation up to target (unlike the 2010s)
- That spending helped Real GDP print higher than the IMF's 5yr forecast from 2019 for the

Fiscal spending on interest payments is what QE wishes it was

There’s no evidence that this is true. Rates reflect conditions, they don’t cause conditions.

Fed's gonna have to cut rates to slow this economy down.

Without a doubt this is your fundamental error. High long rates are one and the same as higher NGDP. You describe a world of an empowered Fed which by in shock rate rise raises ongoing rates. The rise in long rates is an effect, not cause.

I don't know who is listening to JPOW speaking right now, but it's a circus listening to him provide a tortuous theory for how the Fed is relevant. The govt dropped a bag of money on the economy in 2021. Now it's dropping a smaller bag on the economy every year. The end.