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This talk holds up great even though we recorded before the U.S. struck Iran. Why? Because the U.S. strike on nuclear sites solved nothing. The problems facing the U.S. are the same: lost credibility w/Iran, no good military options, and Israeli pressure for regime change.

Pleased to have a piece in The American Conservative contextualizing Trump's Iran strike in U.S. foreign policy. Bottom line: this strike was straight out of primacy - it sure as heck ain't realism and restraint. theamericanconservative.com/on-iran-trumps…

There’s a bitter irony in war: When missiles start falling, they often have a way of breathing new life into loathed leaders, rather than ushering them out the door. My latest on #Iran, #Israel, and the Rally 'Round the Flag effect, for Defense One: defenseone.com/ideas/2025/06/…

My latest for Rolling Stone, on how the U.S. strikes on Iran may not have had the intended effect regardless of what happened at Fordow. With analysis from Nicole Grajewski, Ali Vaez, Farzan Sabet, and Matthew Ford.

My brilliant colleague Daniel DePetris exposes the "Axis of Autocracy" rhetoric as little more than hype. Russia and China condemned Israeli and U.S. strikes on Iran-- but neither stuck their necks out for Tehran. Defense Priorities politico.com/news/magazine/…

Opinion: The war with Iran exposes the emptiness of the "axis of autocracy," writes foreign policy analyst Daniel DePetris. politico.com/news/magazine/…

. Raz Zimmt Danny (Dennis) Citrinowicz ,داني سيترينوفيتش read our latest Stimson Center on why #Israeli attacks won't produce regime change. 'The public’s calculus favors maintaining an unsatisfactory status quo over risking national collapse.' stimson.org/2025/why-israe…

Wrote about #Syria, #Lebanon, and #Iran over the weekend for National Interest, explaining how Trump may be driving much of his regional foreign policy through Damascus. Normalization with Tel Aviv is the big question within this policy today. Have a look! nationalinterest.org/feature/how-tr…

JCPOA locked it up for 15 but whatever.

✍️ Hamas wants U.S. guarantees that Israel will continue negotiating until the war in Gaza ends permanently. But given the fact that Israel has broken pretty much every ceasefire it has agreed to—the IDF resumed fighting in Gaza last March after a 6-7 week truce and is still

I have a piece in The Wall Street Journal today making the case that Donald J. Trump and Pete Hegseth made the right decision to pause weapon shipments to Ukraine:

International observation of Iran's nuclear program suggests that Iran has slow-walked its uranium enrichment in the years since the JCPOA fell apart. Tehran did increase its uranium enrichment, but not dramatically, the way we would expect to see if the Iranian government were

“It is natural to feel sympathy for Ukraine’s plight, but our leaders must put aside emotion, recognize hard realities and prioritize the safety of Americans above all else,” writes Dan Caldwell 🇺🇸 in a letter to the editor. on.wsj.com/4lkHhg4

Check out my debate with Dan Perry on Iran, regime change and U.S. policy in this week’s edition of Newsweek.

Considering the risk of renewed hostilities in the Middle East—and concerns about growing military threats from China—it would be foolish to give away any more Patriot missiles to Ukraine, Dan Caldwell 🇺🇸 argues in Wall Street Journal Opinion. wsj.com/opinion/the-ca…

While the United States can take some practical measures to weaken the cartels, like stemming the flow of firearms into Mexico, there is no silver bullet to stop them. Daniel DePetris & Christopher McCallion break down why: defensepriorities.org/explainers/no-…

The U.S. military should shrink its global footprint, including by slashing the scale of American forces in South Korea by more than 60%, a report by two prominent analysts from the restrainer camp proposed. The report recommended that the number of U.S. forces deployed to South

🧵In our global force posture review, Jennifer Kavanagh and I broadly recommend that DoD: 1. Reduce presence in Europe to 2014 levels (around 60k) since the current Russian conventional threat does not require maintaining around 90k U.S. troops on the continent.

The report envisions Japanese soldiers taking over responsibility for frontline defense in Okinawa, with the U.S. moving a large portion of assets and personnel to islands in the second island chain, such as Guam, Palau and the Marshall Islands.

“Mr Trump has overseen 529 air strikes since his inauguration, compared with 555 over the entire four years of the previous administration.” telegraph.co.uk/world-news/202…