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RepoInsight

@repoinsight

Passionate about global macro. Sharing data, charts & analysis. Views are my own. No investment advice.

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linkhttps://repoinsight.substack.com/ calendar_today05-01-2024 21:25:05

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RepoInsight
@repoinsight

a month ago

NGDP growth ≈ US 10Y yield is a helpful mental model. If real GDP is running at ~2% and inflation at ~2.5%, then the US 10-year yield is roughly at fair value (4.32% currently). It's also pretty much exactly in the middle of its trading range.

NGDP growth ≈ US 10Y yield is a helpful mental model. If real GDP is running at ~2% and inflation at ~2.5%, then the US 10-year yield is roughly at fair value (4.32% currently). It's also pretty much exactly in the middle of its trading range.