Among the notable moves in financial markets this morning — the most notable — is the 6% fall in oil prices following this weekend’s geopolitical developments in the Middle East. #economy #markets #oil #econtwitter

Also notable this morning, and also in reaction to developments this weekend, the Japanese Yen continues to weaken — this at a time when the cost of living issue has gained significant political traction. #economy #japan #econtwitter #yen

With so much on tap for the global economy and markets in the next 10 days, analysts may well get a better handle on the relative importance of the contributors to what, in historical terms, is an unusual 60 basis point rise in 10-yest UST yields from the day the Federal Reserve

Some thoughts on what has been behind the bond markets' seemingly surprising response to the #FederalReserve decision to cut rates on September 18 by 50 rather than 25 basis points. bloomberg.com/opinion/articl… #economy #markets Bloomberg Opinion #bonds #econtwitter #inflation #growth

While new multi-year levels featured in this morning's US data, their interpretation is particularly difficult given both conflicting signals and one-off effects. Specifically: The JOLTS report for September included significantly lower job vacancies: 7.44 million, a decline of

Welcome to UK Budget Day, and it is a big one for the new Labour Government and, more importantly, a British economy urgently needing to improve productivity, enhance growth, strengthen social safety nets, and ensure genuine financial stability. Per this column from two weeks ago

Four big takeaways from this morning's growth data for the Eurozone: At 0.4% for the third quarter, region-wide growth came in higher than the consensus forecast of 0.2%; After the (revised) 0.3% contraction in Q2, Germany avoided a recession with the economy expanding by

As we await Rachel Reeves, the UK Chancellor, to present the budget, I can’t help but reflect on the stark differences with the US. In the UK, Budget Day is highly anticipated, attracting extensive media coverage both in the lead-up and on the day itself. People often change

With the upfront qualification that it is usually hard, if not foolish, to extrapolate from this to the more comprehensive US monthly jobs report due out on Friday: The ADP for October payrolls came in at 233,000. This is not just twice the consensus forecast of 111,000. It is

Having signaled the intention to raise in total £40 billion in budgetary revenues, the UK Chancellor just announced a 1.2 percentage point increase (to 15%) in employer national insurance contribution. Together with the NIC threshold reduction, this area is expected to raise £25

Consumer spending and federal budgetary expenditure drive US growth: While below the consensus forecast of 3.1%, the 2.8% annual growth rate for the third quarter illustrates what has become known as US "economic exceptionalism" (please see the chart below from the NY Times). In

How are the bond markets reacting so far to the UK budget announcement? Favorably: UK yields are sharply lower in both absolute and relative terms (please see Bloomberg chart below). #economy #budgetday #uk #markets #econtwitter Bloomberg Markets

The UK Chancellor just finished her budget speech. Having heard quite a few of these over the years, this one was cleverly structured, full of content, and powerfully delivered. #economy #econtwitter #budget #budgetday #uk

Beyond economics and finance: Look for the political debate on the just announced UK budget to focus on The "inheritance," particularly the fiscal "reality." Promises "fulfilled" versus promises "broken." "Invest to grow" versus "borrow to grow. It is likely to be a very

Further to the earlier post on this: Quite a reversal in the bond market's reaction to the UK budget in volatile trading. After welcoming the announcements with a fall in borrowing costs, yields reversed course and are higher on the day. The rise in yields is also in excess of

Per the (inevitably) conflicting messages from Bloomberg below, we should feel sorry for headline writers given the wild day in the UK government bond market. After welcoming the budget as it was detailed by the Chancellor, reaching a intra-day low of 4.21%, yields did a

As to the why for the wild day in the UK government bond market, with the 10-year trading in a wide (4.21-4.41%) range: Traders and investors are having to internalize three major issues, and for which time is needed. First, lots of moving pieces on both the revenue and

I suspect that, on the whole, this is not what the #FederalReserve expected data-wise when it suddenly decided last month to increase the pace of interest rate reductions from 25 basis points to 50 bps. According to today’s data, core PCE #inflation, widely regarded as the Fed’s

Another leg up in UK borrowing costs, with the yield on 10-year government bonds currently trading at 4.47% after peaking earlier above 4.50%. This move takes place in the context of an active debate, fueled in part by the OBR report, on whether yesterday’s budget will result in

An interesting dynamic in the corporate bond markets: On the one hand, there is a rush of issuance by companies, including (per Bloomberg) “Europe see[ing] more issuers than ever in [a] single day” – this as corporate treasurers look to prefund/refinance ahead of greater macro