Using a decision tree to map out the future can be incredibly useful. No, it does not help you predict the future. But it creates a mindset where you accept multiple paths and possibilities, each with their own probabilities of success or failure. It's not a straight line.

One of the most uncomfortable conclusions from The Founder’s Dilemmas (Wasserman) is this: founders who had the most control had the least financial return. Question the assumption that max control = max reward. The data says otherwise.

The game of building startups is unpredictable. It’s not only impossible to be predictable but it’s not even the goal. We would have so much less innovation if we merely achieved what we set out to do.

Things going wrong are not negative signals for some future VC. They are part of being a founder and building something great.

Really appreciated amanda peyton 's courageous/insightful debrief on Braid's shutdown. Maybe too hard on herself in the harsh light of hindsight. amandapeyton.com/blog/2023/10/b…

Playing swaggervc with founders in the ChaiTech Accelerator. The winning fund? $75M in -> $1.5B out. Pretty great return. #vc #boardgames #founders

Before raising from Angels it pays to understand the different types. Eg most Angels are followers. It's better to focus on a lead who can think independently. I wrote a blog post about Angel types: founderinresidence.co/recognize-the-… #angels #founders #pitching

Agree or disagree with these categories? From a post about recognizing different types of Angels and their needs.

I get asked this question a lot in my founders workshops: "What if an Angel also wants to be paid as a consultant?" I know my answer, what's yours? 1/ No problem if they add value 2/ Never. Run away.

Every dollar counts, but don't call yourself an Angel if you can only invest $5000. Trust me, the startup needs more.

Most Angels are followers (which is ok). You can recognize followers by how they talk about their deals: they emphasize who else is in their deals and name drop prominent investors.

Lots of lessons from the best Angel investment in Canadian history. Mine: Angels should make (bigger) bets on (better) founders. opmwire.com/john-phillips-…

How to recognize a lead Angel investor: They don't ask “Who else is investing?” They have confidence/time to do their own diligence. They talk about deals where they've played an active role. They offer to intro you to other Angels. #angels #leads

Too many founders are trying to figure out “the right way to do it” Eg founder mode. I want to love this idea. Except I have no idea what it is. Founders need irrational certainty. But when it comes to loud, certain advice it’s better to have a skeptical mindset and a default