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Mark

@qualityreturn

• Entrepreneur & Value Investor (GALP) • Building GreatStocksCheap to help retail investors select better companies at lower prices • No advise, do your own DD

ID: 1579902700547866624

calendar_today11-10-2022 18:32:20

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$MUSA in 3/10 charts Is It Priced Right? • The P/E for 2024 (~21) is much higher than its 10-year average • The EV/Rev multiple has trended up, peaking at 0.6x The market is pricing in a lot of future success, making it look historically expensive

$MUSA in 3/10 charts

Is It Priced Right?
• The P/E for 2024 (~21) is much higher than its 10-year average
• The EV/Rev multiple has trended up, peaking at 0.6x

The market is pricing in a lot of future success, making it look historically expensive
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$MUSA in 5/10 charts Reinvesting Profits • Profit is strong, but CapEx is near a high • FCF Margin is ~2% in 2024, down from a high of 3.0% in 2020, likely due to the high CapEx MUSA is channeling its profits into large capital investments, slowing down FCF generation

$MUSA in 5/10 charts

Reinvesting Profits
• Profit is strong, but CapEx is near a high
• FCF Margin is ~2% in 2024, down from a high of 3.0% in 2020, likely due to the high CapEx

MUSA is channeling its profits into large capital investments, slowing down FCF generation
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$MUSA in 4/10 charts Cash Squeeze Concern • Cash & Investments are near a 14-year low • Current Ratio (a key liquidity measure) has dropped below 1, short-term liabilities exceed assets Investors should monitor cash flow to ensure near-term obligations can be met.

$MUSA in 4/10 charts

Cash Squeeze Concern
• Cash & Investments are near a 14-year low
• Current Ratio (a key liquidity measure) has dropped below 1, short-term liabilities exceed assets

Investors should monitor cash flow to ensure near-term obligations can be met.
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$MUSA in 5/10 charts Reinvesting Profits • Profit is strong, but CapEx is near a high • FCF Margin is ~2% in 2024, down from a high of 3% in 2020, likely due to the high CapEx MUSA is channeling its profits into large capital investments, slowing down FCF generation

$MUSA in 5/10 charts

Reinvesting Profits
• Profit is strong, but CapEx is near a high
• FCF Margin is ~2% in 2024, down from a high of 3% in 2020, likely due to the high CapEx

MUSA is channeling its profits into large capital investments, slowing down FCF generation
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$MUSA in 6/10 charts Revenue Ride • Rev is very volatile, peaking sharply in ~2022 due to high gas prices • 2025 Q2 rev was $5B, down 8.2% from the prior year, showing weakening sales volume Their total sales are heavily affected by price swings in the oil market.

$MUSA in 6/10 charts

Revenue Ride
• Rev is very volatile, peaking sharply in ~2022 due to high gas prices
• 2025 Q2 rev was $5B, down 8.2% from the prior year, showing weakening sales volume

Their total sales are heavily affected by price swings in the oil market.
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$MUSA in 7/10 charts Fuel Margin Magic • Fuel margins (cents/gallon) are the biggest driver of profit (~60% of GP) • Despite lower volume, Q2 2025 saw an improved total fuel margin of 32cpg When fuel margins are high, even with flat sales, MUSA posts strong profits

$MUSA in 7/10 charts

Fuel Margin Magic
• Fuel margins (cents/gallon) are the biggest driver of profit (~60% of GP)
• Despite lower volume, Q2 2025 saw an improved total fuel margin of 32cpg

When fuel margins are high, even with flat sales, MUSA posts strong profits
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$MUSA in 8/10 charts Profit Check • 2024 Net Income was $500M, a drop due to higher oper. expenses • Merchandise sales are a stable growth area, helping offset fuel dips Strong in-store sales are key to keeping overall profit levels resilient against fuel price volatility.

$MUSA in 8/10 charts

Profit Check
• 2024 Net Income was $500M, a drop due to higher oper. expenses
• Merchandise sales are a stable growth area, helping offset fuel dips

Strong in-store sales are key to keeping overall profit levels resilient against fuel price volatility.
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$MUSA in 9/10 charts Cash is King • FCF shows the real cash left after paying for operations and growth • MUSA uses FCF for new store CapEx and significant share repurchases This large, steady cash flow enables buybacks & investment in future store expansion.

$MUSA in 9/10 charts

Cash is King
• FCF shows the real cash left after paying for operations and growth
• MUSA uses FCF for new store CapEx and significant share repurchases

This large, steady cash flow enables buybacks & investment in future store expansion.
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$MUSA in 10/10 charts Store Growth Ahead • Mgmt is ramping up construction with plans to build 50 new stores • Capital spending is expected to be high to support this massive expansion These investments in new stores are expected to significantly boost future earnings.

$MUSA in 10/10 charts

Store Growth Ahead
• Mgmt is ramping up construction with plans to build 50 new stores
• Capital spending is expected to be high to support this massive expansion

These investments in new stores are expected to significantly boost future earnings.
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I don't seek wealth because I want fancy things. I seek it because I want complete control over my time without worrying about the financial implications.

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$TSLA in 1/6 Charts Profit Margins Halved • Profit margins peaked in '22, have now fallen below 10% •The price war is not a myth; Gross Profit peaked in '22 and has slightly declined despite higher revenue Aggressive price cuts are clearly eating away qualityreturn.substack.com/p/teslas-shift…

$TSLA in 1/6 Charts

Profit Margins Halved
• Profit margins peaked in '22, have now fallen below
10%
•The price war is not a myth; Gross Profit peaked in '22 and has slightly declined despite higher revenue

Aggressive price cuts are clearly eating away
qualityreturn.substack.com/p/teslas-shift…
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$YSLA in 6/6 Charts • FCF peaked in '22, Profit peaked in '23 • During 2018 to '20 FCF was higher than Net Income showing high-quality earnings While cash generation is positive, the trend signals future growth may be constrained by less funding qualityreturn.substack.com/p/teslas-shift…

$YSLA in 6/6 Charts

• FCF peaked in '22, Profit peaked in '23
• During 2018 to '20 FCF was higher than Net Income showing high-quality earnings

While cash generation is positive, the trend signals future growth may be constrained by less funding

qualityreturn.substack.com/p/teslas-shift…
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Balchem in 1/6 Charts Sales Back Up • LTM Rev is rising fast, projected to reach near $1,000M by mid-'25 • After dropping to 0% growth in '23, the YoY growth rate is expected to rebound to ~5% $BCPC navigated a growth dip and is back on a steady upward sales path.

Balchem in 1/6 Charts

Sales Back Up
• LTM Rev is rising fast, projected to reach near $1,000M by mid-'25
• After dropping to 0% growth in '23, the YoY growth rate is expected to rebound to ~5%

$BCPC navigated a growth dip and is back on a steady upward sales path.
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Balchem in 2/6 Charts High Cash Flow • FCF is strong, consistently staying higher than Net Income over the long term • FCF is projected to reach over $140M in 2024, with FCF Margin near 20% This shows the company is fantastic at turning sales into actual, usable cash.

Balchem in 2/6 Charts

High Cash Flow
• FCF is strong, consistently staying higher than Net Income over the long term
• FCF is projected to reach over $140M in 2024, with FCF Margin near 20%

This shows the company is fantastic at turning sales into actual, usable cash.
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Balchem in 3/6 Charts Long-Term Cash Machine • Rev ↗ • Operating Income ↗ • EBIT ↗ • Net Income ↗ • FCF ↗ • Dividends ↗ • Valuation ↗ Decades of consistent business profit is a sign of a high-quality, resilient business model.

Balchem in 3/6 Charts

Long-Term Cash Machine
• Rev ↗ 
• Operating Income ↗ 
• EBIT ↗ 
• Net Income ↗
• FCF ↗ 
• Dividends ↗ 
• Valuation ↗ 

Decades of consistent business profit is a sign of a high-quality, resilient business model.
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Balchem in 4/6 Charts Long-Term Dividend Machine • Operating Income ↗ • FCF ↗ • Dividends ↗ These long-term financial metrics are somewhat consistent. They seem almost fake.

Balchem in 4/6 Charts

Long-Term Dividend Machine
• Operating Income ↗ 
• FCF ↗ 
• Dividends ↗ 

These long-term financial metrics are somewhat consistent. They seem almost fake.
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Balchem in 5/6 Charts • Super consistent Owner Earnings and FCF Margin • Again, it almost seems fake Decades of consistent business profit is a sign of a high-quality, resilient business model

Balchem in 5/6 Charts

• Super consistent Owner Earnings and FCF Margin
• Again, it almost seems fake

Decades of consistent business profit is a sign of a high-quality, resilient business model