Polling averages ahead of the Locals: Reform are still slightly up year on year, and it looks like they'll enter these elections 1-2% higher than in 2025 Greens are by far the most improved, up 6% from this time last year Also a 'Others' increase, which could see more

YouGov MRP - London 2026: Note: This is based on largest vote share only, not amount of seats or council control Greens - Largest vote share in 4 councils from Labour Hackney · Lambeth · Lewisham · Waltham Forest Reform - Largest in 3 councils: Barking and Dagenham (Lab)

YouGov MRP - London 2026 highlights Greens lead in 4 Labour strongholds - all within 2pp: • Hackney: Grn 35% / Lab 33% • Lewisham: Grn 35% / Lab 33% • Lambeth: Grn 34% / Lab 34% • Waltham Forest: Grn 30% / Lab 30% Reform break through in 3 outer boroughs: • Havering:

Good to see the YouGov MRP is virtually identical on London wide vote share to my own model, despite very different methodologies The largest divergences are in Barking and Barnet, where I favour Labour much more heavily - a known characteristic of the model in previous Labour

Lots of talk about vote fragmentation in London Based on my projections, the era of the safe seat isn't completely over, but it is reduced. Biggest impact could be the jump in truly marginal wards, from just 2.5% of all London wards in 2022 to 13.8%

For those interested I've now added implied vote share from the model to London Councils, so you can freely compare (Lambeth example) pollcheck.co.uk/locals-2026

🚨 Just for fun - not official seat projection: What happens if you feed YouGov's London MRP council vote shares into PollCheck's seat allocation model? Labour: 699 (-457) Conservatives: 358 (-46) Lib Dem: 238 (+58) Green: 338 (+320) Reform: 94 (+94) Changes w/2022

London Labour Vote - where has it dropped? Based on today's YouGov London MRP poll, Labour support in London has dropped an average of 19.4% since 2022 Biggest drops: Barking and Dagenham: -53.7% Redbridge: -35.4% Newham: -32.6% Brent: -32.6% Hounslow: -29.3%

London Green vote - increase since 2022 Based on today's YouGov London MRP poll, Greens have increased an average of 14.1% across the capital since 2022 Biggest gains: Barking and Dagenham: +23.7% Haringey: +23.4% Waltham Forest: +22.5%

Reform London vote share - increase since 2022 Based on YouGov's London MRP poll, Reform have increased an average of 13.7% across London since 2022 Biggest gains: Havering: +33% Barking and Dagenham: +30% Bexley: +28%

Approval Ratings (NET) Ed Davey: -8% (+7) Kemi Badenoch: -10% (+3) Nigel Farage: -16% (+4) Zack Polanski: -17% (+2) Keir Starmer: -43% (=) Via: More in Common Field Work: 17–20 Apr changes w/ 10–13 Apr

Holyrood Voting Intention Constituency: SNP: 35.0% N/C Labour: 20.0% (+1) Reform UK: 20.0% (+1) Conservative: 13.0% (+2) Liberal Democrats: 10.0% (+2) Greens: 1.0% (-7)* Regional: SNP: 29.0% (-3) Reform UK: 19.0% (+1) Labour: 17.0% N/C Conservative: 13.0% N/C Greens: 11.0% N/C

Senedd Voting Intention: Plaid Cymru: 30 Reform UK: 25% Labour: 15% Conservative: 12% Greens: 10% Liberal Democrats: 6% Others: 2% Via: Ipsos in the UK MOE: ±4% Field Work: 2- 8 April

Westminster Voting Intention: Reform UK: 25% (-1) Greens: 21% (+1) Conservative: 16% (-1) Labour: 15% (-1) Liberal Democrats: 11% (=) Others: 7% (+1) SNP: 3% (=) Plaid Cymru: 2% (+1) Via: Find Out Now MOE: ±1.9% Field Work: 22-23 April changes w/ 15 April

Labour vote change since last local elections, across all English councils in 2026: Steepest regional drops (average swing): North West: -22.7pp North East: -22.6pp West Midlands: -21.4pp London: -19.3pp Each council is compared to its last contested election, ranging from

Westminster Voting Intention: Reform UK: 28% (+2) Labour: 19% (-3) Conservative: 17% (=) Greens: 15% (=) Liberal Democrats: 12% (+1) Others: 5% (=) SNP: 2% (-1) Plaid Cymru: 1% (=) Via: Opinium MOE: ±2.2% Field Work: 22-24 April changes w/ 15 - 17 April

Approval Ratings (NET) Ed Davey: -5% (=) Kemi Badenoch: -6% (+5) Zack Polanski: -9% (+3) Nigel Farage: -18% (+2) Keir Starmer: -44% (-6) Via: Opinium Field Work: 22-24 April changes w/ 15 - 17 April

Holyrood Voting Intention Constituency: SNP: 38.0% Reform UK: 20.0% Labour: 18.0% Conservative: 12.0% Liberal Democrats: 10.0% Greens: 2.0% Others: 1.0% Regional: SNP: 29.0% Reform UK: 19.0% Labour: 17.0% Conservative: 13.0% Greens: 11.0% Liberal Democrats: 8.0%