Compensation costs up 1.2% Dec 2023 to Mar 2024 and up 4.2% over the year ending Mar 2024 bls.gov/news.release/e… #EmploymentCosts #BLSdata

Q1 US Employment Cost Index Reaccelerates To 1.2% marketnews.com/mni-brief-q1-u…

MNI INTERVIEW: Banxico Should Have Begun Easing In 2023, Ex-Director Werner Says marketnews.com/mni-interview-…

My view on what Fed probably will do (but definitely needs to do) now on Bloomberg website.

bloomberg.com/news/features/…

No Fed interest-rate cuts till 2025, per latest Macquarie forecast trib.al/bsVwL4m

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The Yen is in free-fall and markets wonder if there's a red line. There isn't. The red line that exists is on 10-year JGB yield, which can't rise as this would cause a fiscal crisis. Japan can't simultaneously stabilize Yen and cap yields. Japan's debt put it in a terrible place.

NY Fed Nowcast for Q2 GDP: 2.7% newyorkfed.org/research/polic…

MNI INTERVIEW: Ex-Dallas Fed President Kaplan Says Loose Fiscal Is Holding Up Fed Cut marketnews.com/mni-interview-…

MNI INTERVIEW: Ex-Fed Director Of Monetary Affairs Sees Risk Next Move Is A Rate Increase marketnews.com/mni-interview-…

❖ U.S PCE PRICE INDEX (MOM) (MAR) ACTUAL: 0.3% VS 0.3% PREVIOUS; EST 0.3%

GS: Annualized US core PCE inflation accelerated to 4.2% in 2024Q1, but underlying trends are less alarming.

The Q1 acceleration mostly reflected one-off surprises in acyclical categories where costs pass-through with long lags, and forward-looking indicators are at…

MNI INTERVIEW: BCB Still Likely To Cut By 50 In May-Figueiredo marketnews.com/mni-interview-…

FITCH, on Q1 #GDP :

'.. The hot inflation print is the real story in this report. If growth continues to slowly decelerate, but inflation strongly takes off again in the wrong direction, the expectation of a Fed interest rate cut in 2024 is starting to look increasingly more out…

Traders are now only pricing in one rate cut this year, and not until the end of it. bloomberg.com/news/newslette…

MNI BoJ Preview - April 2024: ‘Wait And See’ Approach, Alert To Messaging On JGB Purchases & Currency Weakness:
- Proprietary policy & market analysis of the Japanese economy ahead of the BoJ rate decision
- Detailed breakdown of sell-side analyst views plus market pricing &…

Momentum & heat

Real GDP rose at a 1.8% pace in the first quarter, a sharp slowdown from the 3.4% pace of the fourth quarter. Much of that slowdown could be attributed to a widening of the trade deficit, a DROP in federal spending and a further liquidation of inventories. The…

Elevated Commodity Prices Likely A Setback To Disinflation, Says World Bank marketnews.com/mni-brief-comm…

The U.S. economy grew at a 1.6% annualized rate in Q1.

bea.gov/data/gdp/gross…

#GDP

Nice article by Richmond Fed Research on the history of the Fed's 2% target. It took over a decade to build internal consensus. Many considerations that shifted with the changing FOMC composition as well as economic conditions.
richmondfed.org/publications/r…