@JMagosh Will Jennings Luke Tryl Sam Freedman James Austin (1) Sunak's support distributition is super reminscient of Kate Forbes' (-10 with Leavers/SNP-2019)

(2) I'm fascinated with the degree to which people separate party from leader

@JMagosh Will Jennings Luke Tryl Sam Freedman James Austin ^ Bit of an exaggeration since Sunak's support outside his party at least *looks* like a reasonable adjacent expansion of the coalition (Cameroonite/Lib Dems), not like he's picking up smiles from Greens/Left-wing of Labour.

@JMagosh Will Jennings Luke Tryl Sam Freedman James Austin I think this is maybe less about Johnson and more about *the instability of the new coalition*.

Even when it was still May's new coalition you could see that those new voters were all really low partyId.

@JMagosh Will Jennings Luke Tryl Sam Freedman James Austin May's mistake was putting pressure on that coalition to get a mandate to make levelling up real, Johnson's sensible move was getting a GE as soon as possible and making the campaign completely vacuous.

@JMagosh Will Jennings Luke Tryl Sam Freedman James Austin Johnson obviously trashed his rep and the party's rep - but even before then, back in Summer 2020, you could see weakness among those same low partyId new Con voters.

Marios Richards @JMagosh Will Jennings Luke Tryl Sam Freedman James Austin This is my sense too, the Johnson voting coalition contains some very real tensions. You can also make the case that Truss's positioning really didn't go well with the 'levelling up' side of the voting coalition.

Metatone Marios Richards @JMagosh Will Jennings Luke Tryl Sam Freedman James Austin I did warn them.... (in January 2021)

Metatone Marios Richards @JMagosh Will Jennings Luke Tryl Sam Freedman James Austin Oh actually also in March 2020 - should've done it in a substack I guess 🤫