it’s a sign of how vibes-based these markets are that Trump was ever 25 points ahead lol

Does the government seem more energetic, or more tired? % saying 'tired'

All Britons: 79%
2019 Con: 79%
2019 Lab: 87%

yougov.co.uk/topics/politic…

This is a nice way of providing a baseline for this sort of poll question... x.com/LukeTryl/statu…

Is this a case of people always saying politicians should resign? To test we asked half the sample if she should resign without the specifics. In that case 66% said Don't Know & the Conservative resign figure fell to 17% - so the specifics do make a difference vs general resign.

We asked whether people thought that Michelle Donnelan should resign when the figure was £15,000 and 66% of the public thought that she should - including 64% of Conservative 2019 voters.

Interesting nugget that appears to indicate that the phrase originates with Allegra Stratton. I don't think we knew that before?

It's wild how geographically concentrated 'professionals' are in the big cities outside London

For those who think the issue of Brexit will go away, the frontier of age/Brexit preferences is steadily shifting in a pro-EU direction - and is likely to continue to do so as a result of population replacement. Data via British Election Study

Here @jameskanag on 'culturenomics' says he found that internationally the strongest predictor of voting populist right is a racialised grievance about fairness and equal opportunities

We've opened the call for our The British Academy The Leverhulme Trust
small grants scheme offering £10k. We receive so many good applications so awards will be allocated randomly between those applications that meet our quality threshold. Spread the word!
thebritishacademy.ac.uk/funding/ba-lev…

'If you're under 25 your brain isn't fully developed, so you can't be trusted to make informed decisions'

I'm seeing this a LOT lately, especially today. And it's utter guff, based on hearsay, misunderstandings of neuroscience, or wilful ignorance.

Why? I'll tell you why

/1

The 4 dark laws of online engagement:

1. Negativity bias drives headline clicks
2. Extreme opinions drive in-group sharing
3. Out-group animosity drives engagement
4. 'Moral-emotional' language goes viral

I discuss our research on the dark side of virality with Derek Thompson…

10 April 1912. #OnThisDay 112 years ago, Titanic departs Southampton for the first and final time as she begins her fateful maiden voyage.

It's here and it's beautiful! Check our new Ipsos UK elections website - complete with long term trends and downloadable data. Take a look 👇

ipsos.com/en-uk/uk-opini…

Labour leads the SNP by 1% Scotland.

Scotland Westminster VI (6-7 April):

Labour 33% (-1)
SNP 32% (-2)
Conservative 17% (+1)
Lib Dem 8% (+2)
Reform 5% (+1)
Green 2% (-2)
Alba 2% (+1)
Other 0% (–)

Changes +/- 10-11 March

redfieldandwiltonstrategies.com/scottish-indep…

The Conservative Party's reputation has collapsed across a range of issues since the last election, with no sign of recovery.

The Tories are now on their lowest score of this Parliament across six areas for our 'best party to handle [x] issue' question 👇

Housing: 9% say Tories are best party
NHS: 10%*
Education: 12%*
Immigration: 14%*
Brexit: 15%*
Unemployment: 16%
Law & order: 18%*
Tax: 18%
Economy:…

Trying to interpret what precisely respondents mean by each of these is quite fun. Putting up a shelf = reliable? Solving an escape room = cunning?

For more on why I'm a skeptic about declaring political realignments based on poll subgroups, here's a wonky piece on how weighting affects *everything*. Polling has become more art than science these days.

My latest National Journal (unlocked)

nationaljournal.com/s/724711/can-p…

This *is* exciting, not least because it's not officially out for another 20 days. Publishing timescales remain a mystery