Begging political Twitter to internalise that MRP models are hyper sensitive to polling shifts and inputted assumptions and that confidence intervals on individual seats are usually pretty big 🙏

Useful yes but uncertainty important to understand

My fun snippet from today's Yougov poll

Those who voted Lib Dem in 2019 are the least likely to give 10/10 certainly to vote in a general election but those currently intending to vote LibDem are the most likely.

Their political engagement and energy makes them the backbone of lots of important campaigns but they are also significantly over represented on social media which means their voice (& frustrations) can often be taken to reflect a bigger proportion of the population than they are

I am being duly punished on the return journey with a busy quiet carriage full of people who want to have loud conversations.

Interesting example - of media/political class attention skews and perhaps unconscious bias too - that several pollsters have polled the (probably predictable) London Mayoral election several times, yet none have yet polled an unpredictable West Midlands election.

'If the polls tighten' doing a lot of work in this piece.

'work experience [is] a requirement for a number of competitive courses at Russell Group universities [but] access to work experience unfairly favours those from a privileged background'
#WideningParticipation #HigerEducation

Can you imagine the outcry if an actual research project tried to fund 184 focus groups.

Has been great working with Alex Bogdan and Ipsos on this project! Keep your eyes peeled on Friday for Dr Steph Luke’s next blog 📈

It’s also worth noting that there will be many, ballot papers that don’t have Reform UK or Green on them next month, which is one of the reasons we'll be careful about drawing conclusions about them versus national VIs:
x.com/ElectionMapsUK…

I think Rishi would be quite good at putting up shelves though, it would just take ages and not be the shelf you actually asked for but the one he thought you should have.

Crikey, my London bound train has lots of carriages, very few people, functional WiFi and is running on time.

📊 NEW polling with Ipsos UK 📊

✍️'By European standards, even people who feel represented in the UK are particularly pessimistic about political engagement'

🚨 Sophie Stowers compares feelings of political apathy in the UK to other European countries.

ukandeu.ac.uk/apathy-in-the-…

Join us and UK in a Changing Europe today at 5pm for our webinar on elections and democracy. Register below 👇

Anyone else just got black screen on ITV #Lionesses

Here's how to register for the London conference this Thurs organized by the UK World Values Survey.

Details: uk-values.org/conference
Register: docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAI…

This hasn't quite worked 100% - bit like a cake with a soggy middle - but it does capture that the 2019 Conservative vote is flowing in lots of different directions and that depends on the values group of the voters. Will try and improve it

(X: Left-right y: Lib-Auth)

“Reform aren't giving their potential voters an opportunity to start voting for the party until the crunch of a GE. It just feels a little bit of a poor strategy.'

Chris Hopkins has spoken to PoliticsHome on Reform UK's local elections strategy today.

politicshome.com/news/article/r…