One of the (many) issues with estimating the NAIRU is what proxy to use for inflation expectations. If you use the RBA estimate you get a NAIRU of around 4.5%. If you use bond-market measures of inflation expectations the NAIRU is closer to 5.2%. github.com/MacroDave/RBA_…

Wondering what the effect of hailstorms is on the National Accounts? Check out this useful Australian Bureau of Statistics summary from 1999: abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/abs@.…

😐 Matt Cowgill

The latest national accounts is a good reminder that you should not use the HP filter, unless you think that the latest figures should cause you to revise up your estimates of the pre-COVID state of the economy. *thanks to Matt Cowgill for the readabs R package :-)

The Beveridge curve needs to start shifting inward if the unemployment rate is going to fall

The only category of employment to increase since March has been part-time males (up 2.7%)

The underemployment rate is now lower than in March 2020.

Employment is above march levels in QLD and WA. The other states are still well below March levels.

Full-time employment still down on March levels in most States (except SA and Tas). NSW still down 3%

A very simple Okun's Law relationship would mean GDP per capita growth of around 0.3 in the December quarter. Will just have to wait until....March 3rd to see how wrong that is.

Hi Matt Cowgill

Impulse response from RBA's MARTIN model in R

Steven Hamilton I thought you may be interested in this. data: tenders.gov.au/Reports/CnCons…

Bayesian estimation of the NAIRU in Australia. Preliminary results using R and Stan. Comments/corrections/suggestions welcome! github.com/MacroDave/NAIRU