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New Publication WEP Journal: In this paper, I analyze cohort differences in consideration sets: Do newer generations *consider* voting for more and different parties than earlier generations? Spoiler alert: Yes to both! 👇🧵 tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…

I am betting this topic will be the key discussion in 5-10 years almost everywhere. So far most people still don't realize - how dramatic the decline in fertility really is - what that means for social security systems and generally growth prospects

Billionaires own about 4% of US wealth, but contributed 1/3 of the money raised by Trump, a billionaire himself. The triumph of plutocracy, in real time

just released: national estimates from CES pre-election interviews with over 70k american adults National LVs (Oct. 1 - 25): Harris: 51% Trump: 47% Dynamic crosstabs: cooperativeelectionstudy.shinyapps.io/prez2024pre/ Release: sites.tufts.edu/cooperativeele…

Here is a remarkable demonstration of how much a pollster's choices affect the results. Joshua Clinton took a single poll and depending on the weighting scheme, he could change the Harris-Trump margin by as much as *8 points*. goodauthority.org/news/election-…

Can We Believe the Polls? We can't use the logic of random sampling anymore. Weighting is changing but still may not work. New #ScienceOfPolitics podcast/transcript with Brian Schaffner & Michael Bailey niskanencenter.org/can-we-believe…

Who do Europeans want to win the US presidential election? 🇩🇰 Harris 81% / Trump 7% 🇸🇪 Harris 73% / Trump 13% 🇩🇪 Harris 71% / Trump 14% 🇪🇸 Harris 65% / Trump 17% 🇫🇷 Harris 62% / Trump 15% 🇬🇧 Harris 61% / Trump 16% 🇮🇹 Harris 46% / Trump 24% yougov.co.uk/politics/artic…

I have the honor to share the Handbook of Affective Polarization that I co-edit with Eelco Harteveld. It is open access, pre-registered preprint: Torcal, M., & Harteveld, E. (2024, November 1). Handbook of Affective Polarization. doi.org/10.31219/osf.i… UPF Barcelona RECSM-UPF

As people assess the election outcome, it's good to keep in mind that the most accurate prediction (on a state-by-state level too) seems to be Peter K. Enns et al. forecast, based on economic fundamentals and incumbent approval. doi.org/10.1017/S10490…

Politicians tend to think: "voters are unfair in their retrospective assessments of politicians’ performance, identity oriented rather than policy oriented, retrospective, egocentric, single-issue-focused, leader oriented, relatively uninformed, and oriented to the short term."

It seems that Trump has won the male Hispanic vote. This shows the "circumstantial" nature of their "ethnic liberalism" -- illiberals can attract minorities when they provide them entry into the majority, effacing their minority status.

We’re going to hear lots of stories about which people, policies and rhetoric are to blame for the Democrats’ defeat. Some of those stories may even be true! But an underrated factor is that 2024 was an absolutely horrendous year for incumbents around the world 👇

This nicely shows that Trump winning all seven swing states was in no way an unexpected scenario given the polling data (and models based on those): In fact, the most likely swing state combination in Nate Silver's prediction model.

Welche Rolle spielt die #Inflation für Wahlen, wie die von Donald #Trump, und für die nächste #Bundestagswahl? Ein 🧵 1/n :

more americans in the lowest income brackets voting republican instead of democrat, for the first time in decades:

"Decomposing nostalgic deprivation into different dimensions, we find that while social, economic and power deprivation have different antecedents, each predicts populist attitudes and voting behaviour."

Voter turnout declined in 42 states & DC. It rose in only 7 states, 4 of them battlegrounds (GA, PA, MI, & WI)

Why did Trump win? How well did we predict the MAGA landslide? What to expect from President Trump 2.0? We'll host a virtual roundtable on this InFER Frankfurt Goethe-Universität with Nils Steiner, Mary Stegmaier, Herbert Kitschelt, & Sigrid Roßteutscher. Do join us for this event!

we first show how democrats and republicans sort into distinctive colleges, majors, occupations, industries, and employers. at each stage of their trajectory through the labor market, democrats and republicans are making different decisions. we can see this in great detail.

Zelenskyy’s White House meeting with Trump and Vance