Nick Rokke (@nickrokke) 's Twitter Profile
Nick Rokke

@nickrokke

Stock analyst. Tech enthusiast. Lover of craft IPAs. All opinions are my own. Will never ask for money in exchange for a recommendation.

ID: 1146774121

calendar_today04-02-2013 01:59:20

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This article offers great advice on how we should use AI. While I don't agree that AI will take away all of our jobs - I think it will just change how we work - the advice is just solid advice for any time of uncertainty.

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Last year, rocket stocks took off. Now SpaceX is planning a moon base, in addition to going to Mars. How long will it take for Wall Street to realize that most of the construction on these other worlds will be done through 3D printing? Bullish for $PRLB $DDD $SSYS $NNDM

Last year, rocket stocks took off. 

Now SpaceX is planning a moon base, in addition to going to Mars. 

How long will it take for Wall Street to realize that most of the construction on these other worlds will be done through 3D printing? 

Bullish for $PRLB $DDD $SSYS $NNDM
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A lot of lines on the chart. But the yellow line is information tech and the purple line is materials. The fact they are trending up shows that analysts are increasing their growth projections for the year. $VGT $XLK $XLB

A lot of lines on the chart. But the yellow line is information tech and the purple line is materials. The fact they are trending up shows that analysts are increasing their growth projections for the year. 

$VGT $XLK $XLB
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Morgan Stanley is showing that AI adopters are expanding their margins faster than the average. This is why AI growth continues to expand.

Morgan Stanley is showing that AI adopters are expanding their margins faster than the average. This is why AI growth continues to expand.
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Part of the reason SaaS companies earned high multiples in prior years was that they consistently generated more revenue from existing customers year after year. That's called net revenue retention. But as we can see, NRR is falling. So the visibility of future revenue is

Part of the reason SaaS companies earned high multiples in prior years was that they consistently generated more revenue from existing customers year after year. That's called net revenue retention. But as we can see, NRR is falling. So the visibility of future revenue is
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For all the fear out there of the credit markets blowing up, here's a little green shoot. The number of customers paying off their entire credit card balance every month is increasing. The average consumer remains strong.

For all the fear out there of the credit markets blowing up, here's a little green shoot. 

The number of customers paying off their entire credit card balance every month is increasing. The average consumer remains strong.
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The takeaway from this article on AI job displacement is that my dishwasher will remain employed. Interesting.... Yes a lot of boring, entry-level work is being displaced. And businesses are going to have to think about how to train new people without having them do that work.

The takeaway from this article on AI job displacement is that my dishwasher will remain employed. Interesting....

Yes a lot of boring, entry-level work is being displaced. And businesses are going to have to think about how to train new people without having them do that work.
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The one thing that scares me in the market isn't the war, it's the potential for contagion in the private credit market. The catalyst for redemptions is the fear that AI will displace software companies and they won't be able to pay off their debt. 2028 will be a telling year.

The one thing that scares me in the market isn't the war, it's the potential for contagion in the private credit market. 

The catalyst for redemptions is the fear that AI will displace software companies and they won't be able to pay off their debt. 2028 will be a telling year.
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Volatility is at extreme levels in oil (OVX). Much higher than even during the invasion of Ukraine. But the thing to watch is if volatility in the bond market picks up. In this chart, it's signified by VXTLT, which tracks the volatility of $TLT or 20+ year US Treasuries.

Volatility is at extreme levels in oil (OVX). Much higher than even during the invasion of Ukraine. 

But the thing to watch is if volatility in the bond market picks up. In this chart, it's signified by VXTLT, which tracks the volatility of $TLT or 20+ year US Treasuries.
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The percentage of companies showing that AI is impacting their business is rising every quarter. Really, AI should be impacting everyone, but more companies are finding it necessary to talk about the 'quantifiable benefits' they are experiencing.

The percentage of companies showing that AI is impacting their business is rising every quarter.

Really, AI should be impacting everyone, but more companies are finding it necessary to talk about the 'quantifiable benefits' they are experiencing.
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People often long for the good ol days, but they weren't better in all ways. One example is that the food budget for the typical household has declined from 20% of disposable personal income in the 1950s to 10% now. That gives us more money to spend elsewhere. Note: I wonder

People often long for the good ol days, but they weren't better in all ways. 

One example is that the food budget for the typical household has declined from 20% of disposable personal income in the 1950s to 10% now. That gives us more money to spend elsewhere. 

Note: I wonder
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Through all the volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, corporate earnings estimates remain high. That's a great sign if companies meet/beat expectations this upcoming earnings season.

Through all the volatility and geopolitical uncertainty, corporate earnings estimates remain high.

That's a great sign if companies meet/beat expectations this upcoming earnings season.
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This is something to watch. Tightening financial conditions isn't good for economic growth or stock prices. And as the $SPY & $QQQ sit at the 200-day MA, we need a reason for a bounce soon.

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The news around Iran is worrying on many fronts. But I focus on economics... Economically, it feels like we're going to be in for a little pain for a while. Descalation looks very iffy... BUT.... So far, we have followed the path of previous geopolitical events. Maybe $SPY and

The news around Iran is worrying on many fronts. But I focus on economics... Economically, it feels like we're going to be in for a little pain for a while. Descalation looks very iffy...

BUT.... So far, we have followed the path of previous geopolitical events. Maybe $SPY and