To clarify for those asking: Ernie Tedeschi leaving Council of Economic Advisers and Mike Konczal joining NEC in the same month is consistent with the Biden Administration pledge to not subtract, on net, from unfiltered Econ Twitter content.

how it started: how it ended:

(What a great run, congrats!)

This is a good thread. One thing it doesn't mention: The recent increase in immigration hasn't just coincided with historically low unemployment and strong wage growth for U.S.-born workers, but also, with an all-time high in *job satisfaction.*

The immigrant share of the labor force reached a record high of 18.6% in 2023. As a result, anti-immigration forces have been out in full force with a deeply misguided chorus of “immigrants are taking all our jobs.” Here are some key facts, to set the record straight. 1/

Tomorrow at noon, I’m going to be on r/Politics.

I’m the head of budget policy at American Progress. I used to work in the Biden White House. Before that, I worked on the Senate Budget Committee under both Senators Bernie Sanders & Patty Murray.

Ask me anything about the federal budget!

Bullard on sticking the soft landing and monetary policy implications:

1) A soft landing (i.e. 2% RGDP + 2% inflation, his definition) looks likely. Ideally want policy rate to be at neutral when economy sticks the landing.

2) Jan CPI is a great example of bumpiness in the…

~$20/barrel benefit to US taxpayers

It's important to recognize the lessons ARP got right
1. Supercharge the labor market to lift workers & avoid painful scarring
2. Invest in state & local gov'ts so they add to growth
3. Resources to deal with the challenges coming from downturn
4. Cushion for bumps in the road
3/

My piece in The Wall Street Journal: 'The Vindication of Biden's American Rescue Plan'

The data is in: President Biden wisely learned lessons from past crises. His ARP led to a remarkably resilient recovery w/ low unemployment & low-economic scarring 1/
wsj.com/articles/the-v…

New Substack: How a tight labor market helped narrow the racial divide, boost Black wage growth, and lead to the lowest recorded Black/white wage differential in America. open.substack.com/pub/arindube/p…

With recent revisions and today’s report, we can now say that we have seen the strongest inflation-adjusted wage growth of any business cycle in over 50 years.

There is a widening gap between 'rent of primary residence' and 'owners' equivalent rents.' OER reflects the owned stock of homes and might be less sensitive to multi-family housing, as a result. At any rate, the gap between the two is unusual.

Housing prices increased 0.5% in January, a tick above December’s rate. As CEA discussed in a blog post, CPI housing inflation has generally declined with lagged market rent inflation. But lately, it has remained elevated. 9/
whitehouse.gov/cea/written-ma…

Prices as measured by headline CPI grew 0.3% month-over-month in January, a tick above market expectations and above December’s 0.2% read. Monthly core inflation in January was 0.4%, also a tick above expectations and December’s 0.3% rate. 1/