Will solid economic activity sustain with rates slated to stay higher for longer?
Check out the main points in the newest issue of HaMMR Digest from Parker Ross and Leonidas Mourelatos. bit.ly/4036elV
Parker Ross 🖕🏖️ Makeabuck Capital 🛳️🖕 Is it even fair to participate knowing you have a Cena follow in your back pocket?!?
Thinking of him and the boys degen scalping some 0dates pre-match is crazy lmao 😂
An Update on Employment:
I adjusted my chart on the NSA path of continued claims to now use the insured unemployment rate.
The insured unemployment rate normalizes continued claims for the size of the labor force.
This was a valid critique from Parker Ross
(1/7)
Can the economy and housing market survive higher for longer rates?
Check out what Arch’s Chief Economist Parker Ross and Director of Real Estate Economics Leonidas Mourelatos say as they cover the latest economic trends in “Waiting Game.” bit.ly/4036elV
I was wondering yesterday why despite a higher CPI print we sold off across all bond maturities.
2 answers:
1. PPI data was known/anticipated
2. Looking past the print towards a potential slowdown through higher rates.
pic: Parker Ross
% of States that triggered Sahm Rule…
Sahm Rule is obviously the national unemployment rate but this is an important warning sign.
(Chart via Parker Ross)
🇺🇸 20 US states, 39% of total, triggered the Sahm Rule.
The labor market is cracking in #recession territory!
Chart: Parker Ross
Parker Ross Guy Berger Was messing with unemployment payment of the data and got to this pannel here
NSA IC and CC
But payments are a lot higher, any insghts on the mechanism of how payments are adjusted?
Nationwide, UER < Sahm rule
However, state data shows that 39% of states are over. When >31% are over, the rest ALWAYS follow in time.
The fact that the recession is later than expected doesn’t mean it’s not coming. A bigger concern is that it may be worse.
via Parker Ross
Parker Ross Just for fun, I constructed a similar statistic using declines in the employment-population-ratio -- using employment the picture is much less concerning.
Historically, the number of states with declining EPR (decline in 3-month avg EPR>=0.5pp from past-12-month peak) is low.
Parker Ross An indicator I track, the YoY change in the level of workers part time for economic reasons, is also above it’s pre-recession threshold (I track how it precedes the Sahm rule, 6% threshold has since 1980). I’m hopeful, but this is concerning. The level itself is still low though.
🧐👉El mercado laboral de Estados Unidos da señales contradictorias...
El número de estados de EEUU con incremento en la tasa de desempleo indica tendencia hacia recesión. Pero no ha aparecido. Ni está en el mapa de los expertos ahora, ya sabéis.
Gráfico: Parker Ross
🧐Esta es la foto del desempleo (adelantado) junto con el medidor de la Sahm Rule.
Este indicador estaría anticipando recesión económica en 9 estados de Estados Unidos YA, según Parker Ross.
En cambio, todavía hay agilidad y números que aguantan en el resto 👇
Great point here on the different tendencies across democrats, republicans and independents via Parker Ross .
Seems like the level of expected inflation is highest amongst republicans, but the recent rise is driven nearly entirely by independents
x.com/econ_parker/st…
