MrPoastMan (@mrpoastman) 's Twitter Profile
MrPoastMan

@mrpoastman

Mostly investing ideas (not financial advice), occasional geopolitics or other topics. I love models and data, somewhat get this whole AI thing.

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calendar_today30-06-2025 14:07:24

291 Tweet

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MrPoastMan (@mrpoastman) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Only off by 20k new customers, not bad Thank you to management for building, running, and letting us join you as shareholders! Thanks to all the members of the community who share their DD. Congrats to the community on the nice day! I know what I'm drinking the rest of the day.

Only off by 20k new customers, not bad

Thank you to management for building, running, and letting us join you as shareholders! Thanks to all the members of the community who share their DD. Congrats to the community on the nice day!

I know what I'm drinking the rest of the day.
MrPoastMan (@mrpoastman) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Do any of y'all have a feel for how payments are working for car insurance? i.e. as people cross-sell from Pet to Car, are they more likely to switch from CC payments to bank transfers?

MrPoastMan (@mrpoastman) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Working on a write up for the quarter on where I think customers will land for the quarter. But, I had to share these graphs early. I'm not sure it is something that had really clicked with me. 2025, if the prediction holds, has demonstrably been an even better year than 2024.

Working on a write up for the quarter on where I think customers will land for the quarter. But, I had to share these graphs early. I'm not sure it is something that had really clicked with me. 2025, if the prediction holds, has demonstrably been an even better year than 2024.
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Wow -- Shai, team, and Lemonade -- what a statement to innovation. Tech-based, but not strictly tech -- literally participating in the formation of new markets. Nice job!

MrPoastMan (@mrpoastman) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Wow. wow. wow. 35.8k posts today. Elon retweets, Chamath retweets, Polymarket retweets. Google search spike. 17 million impressions on the biggest post.

Wow. wow. wow.

35.8k posts today. Elon retweets, Chamath retweets, Polymarket retweets. Google search spike. 17 million impressions on the biggest post.
MrPoastMan (@mrpoastman) 's Twitter Profile Photo

For context, the reach so far is about 1/10th of a Super Bowl ad for free. (Well, not for free, but for hard, business-improving work).

MrPoastMan (@mrpoastman) 's Twitter Profile Photo

One of my favorite stats from investor day, every 10% discount, 1.5-2.5x increase in conversion. Today's FSD discount could mean a 7.5x to 97x increase in FSD user conversion. When it expands to all of $LMND's easy telematics areas, that could mean ~50-100k new customers from

One of my favorite stats from investor day, every 10% discount, 1.5-2.5x increase in conversion.

Today's FSD discount could mean a 7.5x to 97x increase in FSD user conversion.

When it expands to all of $LMND's easy telematics areas, that could mean ~50-100k new customers from
MrPoastMan (@mrpoastman) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Forest from the trees. January's numbers are in. They look great. Obviously the FSD bump shows up in this data, but 2026 is off to a great start.

Forest from the trees. January's numbers are in. They look great.

Obviously the FSD bump shows up in this data, but 2026 is off to a great start.
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Lemonade has regulation to help be a moat against new players. Against, old players, it has "the mile deep" data Daniel likes to talk about versus incumbents. 8200 vets did things like Waze, etc. They're who you want designing that mile of depth. I like our moat.

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New term I learned today. Seat Compression. I like it. If companies still need mission critical software like "Salesforce", sforce might still get hurt if the company used to have 500 people, but now only has 400 or 300 from AI efficiencies.

MrPoastMan (@mrpoastman) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Modeling question: if LMND literally stopped acquiring customers today and just let the existing book decay to zero -- what would the company be worth? 𝗦𝘁𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗽𝗼𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: 2.98M customers 414 PPC 1.24B in-force premium $1.05B cash and investments on the balance

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Someone needed to raise money. Wouldn't it be fun to have a bird's eye view and know if the drop was due to a capital raise for OpenAI. x.com/sama/status/20…

MrPoastMan (@mrpoastman) 's Twitter Profile Photo

- Why was lemonade just 5M from positive in Q4, why not do it?!? - If we're sooo close now, why didn't they up their guide and tell us they're bringing the first positive Q one or two earlier?!!!! - Bloody hell, we're being really patient shareholders, some have held from IPO

- Why was lemonade just 5M from positive in Q4, why not do it?!?
- If we're sooo close now, why didn't they up their guide and tell us they're bringing the first positive Q one or two earlier?!!!!
- Bloody hell, we're being really patient shareholders, some have held from IPO
MrPoastMan (@mrpoastman) 's Twitter Profile Photo

I just gotta say. I fucking love AI. I've wanted it to be this good since 2009 (or earlier). I pray that it won't be pandora's box for society. High potential for it to be that. E.g. what do we all do when a vast majority of professions (and the investment into them) aren't

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HELP NEEDED! Say Questions: In my traditional personal bent toward perfectionism, I put off selecting my exact questions from my long list until the very last minute. This gives me a window of ~3 hours for some of you all to maybe toss some shares behind the Qs. Let's see if the

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Lots of points of discussion in the community right now. I want to tap this sign again. LMND is a modeling and control system company. They're spending because they told us when the sign would flip -- and they want to maximize what they can plough in before the sign flips. They

Lots of points of discussion in the community right now. I want to tap this sign again.

LMND is a modeling and control system company. They're spending because they told us when the sign would flip -- and they want to maximize what they can plough in before the sign flips. They