120 YEARS OF DOW JONES EQUITIES 📉📈

This is the bears’ last chance to understand that while they are RIGHT that macro & fundamentals point down, the market will NEVER go down because the FED will always save it with liquidity. Do you want to be right that this market is f* up or do you want to make money out of it?

Markellos Linaios The market bottomed in October 1966. The yield inversion unwound in 1967 but became inverted again in 1968. The market topped in November 1968. A recession started only in December 1969, 6 months before the 1970 low. That's a complex scenario that no one expects today.

A day after confirming the daily cycle low $SPX closed back below its 20 day MA with an ugly looking candle. In order to stay in a bullish position it will have to hold above its March 13 low at 3810. The next support is 3908.

R.I.P. Deutsche Bank

There are 2 manipulated facts circulating on Fintwit. This one and "The stock market bottoms only after the Fed cuts rates". Both are true only in case there is a RECESSION. My base case scenario is no recession in 2023 and probably no recession in 2024. x.com/GameofTrades_/…

IMHO this is the market bottom. Both the 10-Year Treasury yield & $DXY have topped out. Even if $SPX penetrates the pink box, further downside is limited to another -50 points by the ascending trendline. I initiated a full $TQQQ position.

What was necessary for the market to bottom and reverse to the upside was for all the items below (DXY, treasury yields & oil) to top out and reverse hard to the downside. All of them, in concert. Now the bottom is solidified and the market can run.

It seems that the 20DMA held $SPX

Check out my #T10Y2Y analysis on @TradingView: tradingview.com/chart/T10Y2Y/R…

Few have noticed that SPX has potentially established a new descending channel.

Few have noticed that SPX has potentially established a new descending channel.

I made a chart to show past SPX action after the 10y-2y yield inversion unwound. Dec 2000: SPX was already in bear market and continued down. May 2007: SPX topped, then made a double top, then collapsed. Aug 2019 (atypical): SPX made a +10% move, then collapsed.

3/4 The "S&P 493" is still ~0% YTD.

As the yield inversion across all treasury maturities is rapidly unwinding, the bear market is gaining momentum. The market has pivoted to sell-the-rips. There will be sizeable bear market rallies, but the market’s direction will be down.

$SPX 100MA recaptured

$SPX +300 pts in 10 sessions confirms we are still in a bear market. In a bull market, the daily gains are much smaller, but keep adding for months and years. Nothing like the current market.

Now that this move up conquered ALL MAs and technicals (the last key obstacle being the descending trendline at 4415), not only does it need time to exhaust itself, but also an event to reverse market psychology. Absent a bad CPI, the upcoming 20y bond auction will do the trick.

This interpretation by zerohedge is 180° backwards. Money which comes out of RRPs is money that can go to work doing things like lifting stock prices. A high amount of RRPs represents stored potential energy. RRP numbers move inversely with stock prices, at least since QE4

With the #CPI at 2.9% and the $DXY teetering on the lower trendline of its 15-year ascending channel, cutting rates is the exact opposite of what the #FED is supposed to do to honor its mandate.