The 3-Month Treasury yield of 5.08% is now 1.67% higher than the 10-Year Treasury yield (3.41%). This is the most inverted yield curve in history.

The 1-year insurance premium to insure US government debt against default has risen to 90 bps, a record high.

The Regional Bank problems aren't going away. This week... PacWest $PACW: -67% HomeStreet $HMST: -48% First Horizon $FHN: -47% Metropolitan Bank $MCB: -40% First Foundation $FFWM: -35% Western Alliance $WAL: -34% Comerica $CMA: -25% WesBanco $WSBC: -25% Zions $ZION: -25%

Apple has bought back $586 billion in stock over the past 10 years, which is greater than the market cap of 493 companies in the S&P 500. $AAPL

Credit Card balances in the US increased 17% over the last year, the biggest spike since the 2001 recession.

The US Money Supply has fallen 4.6% over the last 12 months, the largest year-over-year decline on record (note: M2 data goes back to 1959).

The Interest Expense on US Public Debt rose to $852 billion over the past year, a record high. If it continues to increase at the current pace it will soon be the largest line item in the Federal budget, surpassing Social Security.

Total credit card debt in the US jumped by $45 billion in 3 months to a record $1 trillion. Since 2021, total credit card debt is up nearly $250 BILLION. We went from handing out record levels of stimulus to borrowing record levels of debt. What does it mean when there's a

The average cost of a streaming service is up 25% in the last year.

The US Money Supply fell 3.7% over the last year, the 8th consecutive month with a YoY decline.

US National Debt has now increased by $1.45 trillion since the debt ceiling was suspended 3 months ago and is fast approaching $33 trillion. In the past five years the national debt has increased by 53%, from $21.4 trillion to $32.9 trillion.

Whoosh. So, about that global economy …

Since the GFC, the US has substantially had Federal government-driven credit growth, yet many investors still operate from a first-principles basis of “the US is fundamentally capitalist.” Wisdom is seeing things for what they are, not for what they are called.

Exactly

It is weirdly disconcerting to have a nominee for president (possible President) who has never won one national primary… Like, not one.

An amusing observation is that the tech stocks have been absolutely crushing everything but politicians are like, "you know, let's go after those cereal guys." The underperforming, mid-margin cereal guys whose revenue and expenses rise in tandem from inflated money supply.

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What is going on? Pure unadulterated reckless government spending and so an exponential rise in debt, requiring more units of debt to drive each unit of GDP. Madness.

We've all heard Paul Harvey's "If I Were the Devil". But have you heard this clip from 1965? The subject is big government and it couldn't be more relevant. Worth the 8 minutes.

BREAKING: Lancaster, Pennsylvania officials have BUSTED a large-scale fraudulent voter registration scheme that includes thousands of applications with the same handwriting, fake signatures, false addresses, etc They discovered the same scheme in other Pennsylvania counties.