OpenAI and Anthropic have donated API credits to Metaculus's AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament - this is fantastic news if you're excited to build a bot to benchmark AI capabilities. Tell us the idea behind your forecasting bot. We'll get you credits: metaculus.com/project/aibq3/

Who will be the Democratic nominee? Harris now at 66% with Biden at 25%. Have you predicted yet? metaculus.com/questions/1137…

Five years post-AGI, what will be the state of democracy, of extreme poverty, of world GDP? Will we see a UBI? A Dyson swarm? A complete theory of quantum gravity? This week we're focusing on these and related questions in a new experimental initiative: metaculus.com/project/3410/

Forecast the Democratic nominee for VP: metaculus.com/questions/2575…

I made another Metaculus question for a Trump/Harris debate handshake. If they don’t happen, we’re likely to have the first election where there is no photographic evidence of the candidates shaking hands since 1972 or 1944 depending on your definition metaculus.com/questions/2661…

new Consistently Candid episode with Deger Turan, CEO of Metaculus! We cover a whole range of forecasting topics, including using forecasting to reduce x-risks, advice for aspiring forecasters, Metaculus's AI Forecasting Benchmark Tournament & more buzzsprout.com/2319950/156173…

When public figures make claims, Verity connects them to relevant Metaculus forecasts. Great new feature: verity.news/controversy/Wi…

Telegram founder Pavel Durov was arrested in France. Will he leave the country before 2025? New question, forecast here: metaculus.com/questions/2762…

Glad to see more Metaculus election forecasts featured in EL PAÍS! We're working on more language options to welcome more forecasters and to get aggregated predictions to more news readers. Want to collaborate on non-English forecasting projects? DMs open.

Currently at 42%: Will California Senate Bill 1047, the "Safe and Secure Innovation for Frontier Artificial Intelligence Models Act," be enacted before October 1st? metaculus.com/questions/2696…

"Wisdom of the crowd works. When you aggregate people, and when you aggregate LLMs, it seems to draw an accurate picture of the future Why is this not more used? Usefulness is a different paradigm than accuracy" Metaculus CEO Deger Turan on using AI to scale forecasting🔗👇

AI forecasting is already close to competitive with Wisdom of (Human) Crowds Now Metaculus is running an AI forecasting tournament, with free API credits & $120K in prizes Here's Deger Turan on why you – yes you! – should build a bot & compete A great way to break into AI

The CDC partnered with Metaculus to collect expert forecasts for this respiratory season. Now they've published the report: COVID-19, flu, and RSV hospitalization scenarios, each with probabilities attached so public health officials can prepare. Read on: cdc.gov/cfa-qualitativ…

𝐅𝐨𝐫𝐞𝐜𝐚𝐬𝐭𝐢𝐧𝐠 𝐭𝐡𝐞 𝐝𝐞𝐛𝐚𝐭𝐞: Will Trump and Harris shake hands? metaculus.com/questions/2661… Will they discuss AI? metaculus.com/questions/1710… How will tonight's debate affect election forecasts? metaculus.com/questions/2798…