In am/FX today I show how consumer and business sentiment have decoupled from the real and nominal economy.

Rotation out of energy into tech has been meaningful. QE trade is back until year end. Interest-rate sensitive stocks which have been hit hard this year will find a bid.

What do you think happens to gold when everyone catches the gold bug as it breaches ATH, and institutions find out they're significantly underexposed?

Why the BTC ETF will lead to a structural change in the crypto derivatives market? The much awaited approvals of Bitcoin ETFs are quickly approaching and will significantly alter the structure of the market. Read on to find out how!

Does it make more sense to buy or rent your home? Many people say renting is more economical because of lower monthlies. That's 100% wrong: it doesn't account for capital gains from owning. Our model shows that, under most conditions, ownership is the better option. 🧵 ...

BREAKING: $SOL GOES FROM 1-DIGIT TO 3-DIGITS IN LESS THAN 1 YEAR

Probabilities can change very quickly. And so I think you should be prepared to change your mind often. But in school and most other places they don't emphasize this enough. As if it's some heroic act and higher moral ground sticking to your original thesis. But when you

You have been given $50,000 to put into one option and you can't hedge or trade it. The option expires on the final trading day of 2024. You must hold to expiry. Choose your fighter.

Old news for those who tuned into Vance Spencer on Hidden Forces a few weeks ago. If you haven't listened to that discussion, you should.

There's certainly something up with the Dec ISM Services Employment print... But there's been something off with responses to the ISM question about monthly changes in employment since the recovery from COVID got underway. There's been effectively no correlation between the

If any of my followers are seeking the highest quality and easily accessible research on the housing market, Aziz Sunderji is your man. Give him a follow, and check out his Substack.

Nice chart by DB. All eyes on next month's ISM services to see whether December was a fluke. Anything short of a reversal back towards the 50 cut-off level would be a worrying sign for private sector payrolls going forward.

Today's ECI quarterly wage data, which shows a slight decline that puts today's wage growth right in line with great historical values, may seem like a snoozer. But I want to convince you this has some of the highest ideological stakes of any Q1 data release for 3 reasons. /1

Bitcoin v change in bank reserves.

1/2 For anyone who doesn't already know this: Bitcoin is essentially the same thing as triple-levered NASDAQ. TQQQ is the 3X NASDAQ ETF. Here, I compare how the two have behaved since 2019. They are twins, but not identical.

Great chart here by Simon White from BBG. Market tops take time to play out.

Core PCE m/m marginally softer than most expectations. A cut in September rests on forthcoming m/m readings printing below 0.2% m/m. Need to see the kind of m/m numbers we saw in Q2 and Q4 last year.

Love it when i get some golden nuggets from ʎllǝuuop ʇuǝɹq am/fx. Especially yesterday's discussion on gold. If anyone is considering any kind of paid research, his work is the go-to imo. Fantastic value.

Good May number. More of these would of course be welcome. Due to unfavourable base effects, we will need to see m/m continuing to print below 0.2%, otherwise the Fed reaching their EOY core PCE target will prove difficult.

BTC not out of the woods just yet. Significant liquidity drain last week, likely to be followed up this week. Changes to Fed liquidity tends to lead BTC by two weeks.