Toby Channabis ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒฟ(@mayortoby) 's Twitter Profileg
Toby Channabis ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒฟ

@mayortoby

Chief Investment Officer of my PA. Buy and hold ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ cannabis MSOs and multifamily RE ๐Ÿข. No investment advice here. Tweets are only my opinions.

ID:39183549

calendar_today11-05-2009 03:36:03

18,1K Tweets

5,3K Followers

504 Following

Toby Channabis ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒฟ(@mayortoby) 's Twitter Profile Photo

President Biden The legal cannabis sector has seen pricing deflation.. & gives 80% of profits to the govt. They provide medical benefit to consumers and jobs & tax revenue to their communities.. while being on same schedule as heroin.

Where is the DEA on the rescheduling review you initiated?

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Jesse Redmond(@jesseredmond) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Higher Exchanges is live Thursday at 4 pm EST with state-led growth story savant Hirsh Jain. Toby Channabis ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒฟ, Morgan Paxhia, and I will talk to Hirsh about growth opportunities in key states like Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Set the reminder below!
twitter.com/i/spaces/1lPKqโ€ฆ

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Toby Channabis ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒฟ(@mayortoby) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Hoping we hear from DEA in April to make Nov election timeline comfortably work.. but it's a political & opaque process so we're all guessing.

Likely depends on White House's motivation & timeline for maximum benefit. $MSOS

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Toby Channabis ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒฟ(@mayortoby) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Does Schumer's potential re-introduction of unpassable CAOA.. show he knows something about DEA's rescheduling decision or SAFER? (CAOA = shield from progressive base)

Hard to believe timing is just a coincidence. $MSOS

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Toby Channabis ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒฟ(@mayortoby) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Per AGP, Florida legalization would be the LARGEST state growth catalyst MSO's have ever seen.

Their math: FL would be a $2b new sales opportunity in year 1.. vs. $1.6b lift from the 9 states legalized since 2021.

$MSOS

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Toby Channabis ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒฟ(@mayortoby) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Equity valuation is always more art than science.. so here's some high level (lazy) math:

The largest cannabis co's are worth $2-4 billion today.. basically small cap co's for what is a HUGE global opportunity. $MSOS

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Toby Channabis ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒฟ(@mayortoby) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Jefferies published a 100+ page thesis refresher on US cannabis.

Seems the largest bank to cover the sector is confident in the potential for more institutional interest. $MSOS

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Toby Channabis ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒฟ(@mayortoby) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Still think this Rescheduling review is coordinated & scripted.. so would expect to hear *something* during what the WH deemed to be 'Second Chance' month. $MSOS

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Hirsh Jain(@anandastrategy) 's Twitter Profile Photo

When Gov Doug Ducey opposed the AZ initative in 2020, voters ignored him.

When Gov Governor Mike Parson opposed the MO intiative in 2022, voters ignored him.

When Gov Mike DeWine opposed the OH initaitve in 2023, voters ignored him.

IMO, FL voters will largely ignore Ron DeSantis.

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Toby Channabis ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒฟ(@mayortoby) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Desantis' opinion on FL ballot is irrelevant.

FL already one of largest markets ($2b+) with just med.

Citizens want legal cannabis & will vote accordingly. $MSOS

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Toby Channabis ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒฟ(@mayortoby) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Investors want to buy cannabis stocks on confirmation of good news + strength in stock prices.

$MSOS breaking out to YTD and 16 month highs on strong volume..

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Toby Channabis ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒฟ(@mayortoby) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Prediction: by time of 1Q earnings calls, another Tier 1 MSO files for 280E refunds & only pays 'normal' taxes going forward.. joining Trulieve & many Tier 2/3's.

$MSOS

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Toby Channabis ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒฟ(@mayortoby) 's Twitter Profile Photo

MSO stocks would be at least double today's prices imo.. if they had US big board listings & increased trading volume.

Curaleaf would conservatively be $10-15.

$CURLF $MSOS

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Toby Channabis ๐Ÿ‡บ๐Ÿ‡ธ๐ŸŒฟ(@mayortoby) 's Twitter Profile Photo

Regarding $MSOS daily price action: sector +50% YTD (+100% since HHS leak), the real work in FL just starting, investors want Fed reform > state level & market's inefficient as we know.

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