#India exported most of its sugar to the Middle East, Iran and Bagladesh. If this trend continues, and we consider that Thailand is also competitive in those markets, it is very unlikely that Brazilian #sugar will regain its share on exports for those destinations in 2020. #oatt

INTL FCStone MI team developed a wonderful material about the recent fires in the Amazon forest, analyzing the impacts on the economy (specially agribusiness). You can download the EN version for free in the following link: shorturl.at/cfBGY #OATT

Quais são os impactos das queimadas na #Amazônia e como o Brasil pode conciliar conservação ambiental e desenvolvimento do agronegócio? Baixe gratuitamente o estudo aprofundado desenvolvido pela Inteligência de Mercado da INTL FCStone: mercadosagricolas.com.br/amazonia/

Sugar production in India up to Nov-H1 hit 485,000 MT, annual drop and from the 5-year average of 63.8% & 49.7%, respectively. Despite a strong start in UP, the delay and Maharashtra and a slow start in Karnataka pressured the can processed volume down. #OATT

This past Thursday (05), INTL FCStone's MI team released a quarterly outlook for Q1 2020, covering important commodity markets such as #corn, #soybeans, #sugar, #ethanol, #energy and #fertilizers. You can download it FOR FREE in shorturl.at/noCDX #OATT

Despite the sharp decline in cane crushing in Brazil CS in Nov H2, a sustained avg. TRS resulted in a relatively high total TRS for the industry - as shown below. Along with a high ethanol-mix, this scenario led to a 3% increase in ethanol production. #OATT #ethanol #sugar

Rains in Brazil Center-South between May and Nov. totaled 278.3 mm, down 55.8% on a Y-o-Y comparison and down 48.4% against the LTA, For Dec, as well as for Q1-2020, expectations are that humidity will be plentiful - benefiting sugarcane yields for the 2020-21 season. #oatt

Considering we're expecting a deficit of 7.7 MMT in the sugar market for 2019-20, as well as a stock/use ratio of 38.5%, the graph below shows the bullish potential that specs have. On the other hand, India, Thailand and Brazil CS may balance this trend. #OATT

Yesterday, the market "found out" about a higher sugar-directed mix in Brazil CS during 2020/21 (Apr-Mar). INTL FCStone has been signaling this trend since Oct./19, when we published our last estimates. The recent rally just cleared the scenario for the next season. #oatt

By mid-December/18, #11's futures curve had a flat aspect. A month later, we are seeing an inversion trend with contracts far away from the theoretical spread curve. This reinforces several signs of a tight S&D in the near term. #OATT

Specs still have space to increase their net long position in raw sugar at the ICE/NY. Yet, we need to ponder that the development of factors like beet planting in the EU and US & monsoons expectations in Asia may turn the market to a less constructive situation in H2 2020. #oatt

A 𝐈𝐧𝐭𝐞𝐥𝐢𝐠𝐞̂𝐧𝐜𝐢𝐚 𝐝𝐞 𝐌𝐞𝐫𝐜𝐚𝐝𝐨 da @FCStoneBrasil divulgará seu relatório de 𝐏𝐞𝐫𝐬𝐩𝐞𝐜𝐭𝐢𝐯𝐚𝐬 𝐩𝐚𝐫𝐚 𝐂𝐨𝐦𝐦𝐨𝐝𝐢𝐭𝐢𝐞𝐬 no dia 16/04, com apresentação online realizada pela equipe de especialistas das 8h às 12h. Inscreva-se: mercadosagricolas.com.br/inscricao-pers…

China sugar imports hit 80,000 tonnes in March/20 despite the restrictive measures imposed by Beijing. Historically, imports tend to surge on the second half of the season, and the additional tariff that China imposes over imports are due May/20. (picture in thousand tons) #oatt

Alongside with @rafaelacsouza98, I published the estimate for the 1st UNICA report for the Brazil's CS season of 2020/21 (Apr-Mar). Besides the increase in cane processing, the sugar mix will also go up on the yearly comparison. The report should be published soon. #OATT

Hydrous #ethanol ex-mill prices are going up this week in #Brazil. Yet, fundamentals remain bearish, with a high production & low demand. Thus, stocks in mid-April are above the levels seen at the end of the month on previous seasons. #oatt @FCStoneBrasil @INTLFCStone

How much have recent developments—plummeting demand for fuels and lower oil prices—changed the outlook for the #biofuels sector in #Brazil? Fernanda Delgado, @brazil_works, Matheus Costa & Suani Coelho comment #EnergyAdvisor bit.ly/3buq27q

Leandro Fontanesi elevou a recomendação da São Martinho para Outperform com revisão de preço-alvo para R$36 de R$26/ação, dado que os benefícios do recente "rally" do petróleo sobre as cotações do etanol e açúcar não estão completamente refletidos no valor da empresa. #SMTO3

Leandro Fontanesi aumentou os preços-alvo de JBS (OP, R$38) e Marfrig (N, R$18) em 15% e 6%, efeito da desvalorização cambial e melhora do setor de proteínas nos EUA. JBS/Marfrig podem aumentar os dividendos para reduzir o desconto de valuation com a Tyson Foods. #JBSS3, #MRFG3

Richard Cathcart elevou a recomendação de Alpargatas para Outperform, com preço-alvo de R$46/ALPA4. A análise de bases de dados de exportações trouxe otimismo com a expansão internacional e a recente performance abaixo do setor, sinalizam uma oportunidade de entrada. #ALPA4

Leandro Fontanesi reduziu o preço-alvo da M. Dias Branco para R$36 de R$42/MDIA3 por conta da desvalorização do BRL. A recomendação de Outperform está mantida dado que os resultados devem melhorar no 2S21 em função da queda do preço do trigo e do óleo de palma. #MDIA3