As if the ongoing softer DXY and a steady bid into EM FX like the Brazil Real wasn’t already supportive, now a fresh oil shock adds another tailwind for BRL. Higher crude strengthens Brazil’s terms of trade and reinforces the bullish setup. We remain long BRL vs USD at Astant

As always: Weekend panic, strong gap up at the open, quick correction, trend resumes higher Oil will be strong (above Friday price) until there are realistic peace talks between US and Israel or a regime change

As we said: Commodity exporters AUD & CAD rising vs EUR and most majors. USD bullish, acting as a safety asset and supported by commodities priced in dollars. Gold and oil pushing higher.

This USD spike vs BRL should correct soon. First, the usual liquid commodity FX move AUD and CAD rally first like how they are doing today The Real tends to lag, it’s only a matter of time before BRL follows.

Europe is a structural net energy importer, and it’s showing. The oil spike is hitting the euro harder than most developed currencies. EUR weakening vs USD, GBP, AUD and CAD. When energy rises, importers pay the price.

Today, the Japanese Yen is weakening across the board; USD, GBP, CAD, AUD, EUR. Even against the euro, which is already pressured as an energy importer. Japan’s public debt is over 250% of GDP. Real yields remain extremely low, even negative when FX-adjusted limiting foreign

Europe would suffer far more than the US from a prolonged Iran conflict. The US is close to energy self-sufficient. Europe is a structural net energy importer with no realistic internal buffer. Today the euro is down across the board; USD, GBP, CAD, AUD. A sustained oil spike

As GBP/USD & EUR/USD shows today, a conflict with Iran that sends oil sharply higher (while inflation is already around 3% ) would quickly turn into a renewed inflation crisis in the UK. Same for the Eurozone. Energy-importing economies with limited internal buffers would be

AUD/EUR has been one of the strongest FX pairs today. First, AUD benefits from its export-heavy structure, commodity and oil spikes support Australia’s terms of trade. Second, the euro faces the opposite dynamic as a structural energy importer. In an environment of rising

EuroStoxx 50 is one of the hardest-hit developed indices today. Just like the euro, it’s under pressure. Europe has no meaningful internal energy buffer and remains structurally dependent on imported oil and gas. As long as this dynamic persists, the Eurozone will remain one

Our fund has taken first profits on the AUD/EUR long. One of the clearest macro expressions since the market open. The Eurozone faces terms-of-trade pressure as a structural energy importer, while Australia benefits from its commodity-export profile. In an environment of rising

At the open, markets briefly sold the yen, that reaction was inconsistent with macro fundamentals The JPY is typically bid in stress episodes due to carry trade unwinds and repatriation flows. As volatility stabilized and positioning adjusted, the market corrected. The yen is

One of our strongest convictions since Monday: CAD over EUR. Canada = major oil and commodity exporter. Eurozone = heavy energy importer under pressure. Energy shock widens the gap. EUR/CAD lower was one of the best positions we’ve taken at Astant.

The strength of the Dollar right now is massive. USD is surging across the entire G10, crushing EUR and GBP. Developed markets can absorb more pressure. But EM countries won’t have that luxury. If this continues, they’ll have to step in and intervene to stop further currency

EUR continues its sharp decline. USD is surging across G10 and EM on rising oil shock risk. Energy importers get hit first and hardest. Euro and GBP under heavy pressure as the Dollar squeezes higher.

FTSE 100 has been sinking since markets opened on Monday. One of our strongest short convictions alongside Europe. since markets opened. The UK, like the Eurozone, is heavily exposed to an oil supply shock, and the market is starting to price it.

U.S. gasoline prices are rising at the fastest pace since 2005. If attacks on energy infrastructure continue and disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz persist, energy markets could tighten dramatically. With inflation already running hotter than expected in recent Eurozone CPI

USD/BRL reversing. The dollar weakens against the Brazilian real today despite its sharp spike after Monday’s open. Markets initially sold the real out of inertia as an EM currency, ignoring Brazil’s terms of trade. With oil and commodities strengthening, Brazil’s trade balance

The Kobeissi Letter If Iran manages to push prices above $90, that’s when according to our econometric modelsin inflationary pressure really starts building, especially in Europe and the UK. It would eventually spill over into the U.S. through imported inflation and higher energy costs. In that

EUR/USD one of our biggest shorts since Monday is falling again. EUR as a net energy importing country and US as a safety asset. Iran-US tensions, the oil shock, and the Pentagon document pointing to a war that could last months are driving the move. If oil pushes toward $100,