BREAKING 🚨 So we are back at 10% tax from China! (remove 20% tax on fentanyl) I guess there will be an appeal, but potentially big news reuters.com/world/us/us-co…

Imagine the leverage negotiating trade deals after court overturning. Good luck I think many in the administration are secretly breathing a sigh of relief (Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent especially) Poor UK the only country in the world sucked into a deal Luckily was non binding😀

Without getting into the legalities, Trump can still brute force the taxes back at risk of a constitutional crisis So by now there is absolutely no rush to sign deals for other countries Maybe sign a non binding MOU where they promise to engage in further negotiations blah

There are about 280k Chinese students in USA If they revoke their visa many US colleges will bankrupt next year At the opposite spectrum Canada, UK, Australia will see a boom of applications that there is not enough space for all Need other countries in EU to step in

Tariffs are back! The courts gave until June 9th to rule. A pause until the final ruling Lucky those who could do custom clearance in the few hours without tariffs!

Put yourself in China shoes or any other country Why sign a deal now when you don't even know if the counterpart (Trump) has the authority to sign? It could be a deal invalidated by a court Hence everyone is waiting x.com/Acyn/status/19…

I think it’s better for US to fix the internal legalities before engaging with China The strongest message to China and rest of the world would be a law approved by Congress; in that case they can negotiate from a stronger position

I think there are two possibilities going forward for this import tax situation: 1) continues for the foreseeable future on and off, with court battles Or 2) he casually gives up during this summer holidays (lower rates) and move on to other battles (in 6 months we forget)

Spending my morning at Bank of China Wish me luck🤦‍♂️

Only 75 minutes and I’m done with the bank for this month🤦‍♂️

So the Chinese students ban is linked to trade war Since the legal uncertainties around taxes, Trump needs to find other ways to hit But banning students will only reinforce China just like chips ban has created new competition Those students will be replaced by Indians

On time like a Swiss watch every Friday a new tax: President Trump says he is doubling tariffs on steel from 25% to 50% What will happen on Monday?

Interesting: +10% American tourists in Milan during last month Most come for shopping to avoid import taxes and as a plus can claim back VAT (22%) For once, tariffs are an opportunity

A Chinese influencer sold 120.000 frozen pizza 🍕 in 3 hours during a web live! Italian guy I know supplied and pocketed half million dollars revenue 🤦‍♂️

Containers traffic from China is down a lot (~50%) Two main reasons: - front loading before the 145% tax - 30%+ tax is still too high to make most businesses viable Result: traffic will come from other countries and some businesses shut

Monday morning taxes pause extension here we go Now we wait for this Friday new taxes

My bet: at best will be MOU (memorandum of understanding) Real trade deals take years especially with EU since have to pass many local legislation processes Somehow he will declare a win. I’m fine with it as long as we move on and can back to work without uncertainty

I don’t think a call has been confirmed from China side Personally I think it doesn’t make sense for Xi to be involved now He can see the problems in US government now so he just need to sit and wait for a few months

The price hikes (inevitable with import taxes) are already happening Someone has to pay for the tax if retailers/importers/brands need the same margins: that someone is the consumer It will happen gradually and quietly so people don’t realize it immediately until they do!

Big industrialists move behind the scenes and don’t burn bridges Look at Agnelli family (Owner of Stellantis) from Machiavelli country they thrived for two centuries behind fascism, communism threat, church, terrorism never burning bridges with whoever was at the government