Every journal editor should read this: causalinf.substack.com/p/claude-code-…

Rationality in economics 🧵 "Rationality" in economics doesn't mean what you think it means. In particular, it does not mean that someone is reasonable, that they are well informed, or even that they consciously thought through the consequences of their actions. We use the

Noah Smith 🐇🇺🇸🇺🇦🇹🇼 The downside — or upside, depending on who you are — is that once AI fills the internet with infinite slop, it will mostly end up training on itself. And that may be the one scenario in which humans regain a comparative advantage in intelligence. 🤣

When AI first arrived on the scene, I worried it would make economists, or even critical thinkers more broadly, less valuable. In my travels in the past 6 months to work with non-profits, for profits, and government agencies, I have observed how people are actually using AI. I

Matt Darling 🌐🏗️ John Lettieri The Argument Everyone talks about AI replacement, but no one talks about AI uncertainty. If you don't know whether you'll need workers or what you'll need them for, you hold off on hiring, even if you ultimately end up needing them. If tech progress continues rapidly, the hiring pause due to

Every time I discuss the economic and social disruptions caused by the worldwide decline in fertility, I hear the same response: artificial intelligence (AI) and robots will make this issue irrelevant. I find the answer deeply paradoxical because, despite being an economist, I

What if AI can do not only narrow tasks, but intelligence itself? In a new post on Charles Jones’s NBER paper, I discuss growth, labor, inequality, catastrophic risk—and why the real future of AI may depend not only on economics, but on whether we preserve a humanistic path in

In 🇮🇹, every 100 residents there are 38 pensions (you are reading it correctly). Looking at the territorial distribution of two common types of pensions, a clear pattern emerges: in the North, old-age and seniority pensions prevail, while in the South civil disability pensions

A poll among the Italian baseball team members reveals a wide variety of their favorite dishes: fettuccine Alfredo, meatball spaghetti, chicken parmigiana, pepperoni pizza, penne alla vodka, baked ziti, all with a side of garlic bread.

Substack sta ripristinando la golden age dei blog. Sembrava che i social li avessero uccisi. Invece, i social stanno diventando uno strumento per pubblicizzare i vari post e selezionare cosa leggere. C'è tanto materiale molto interessante da cui imparare e su cui riflettere.

His 1980 Econometrica paper made me want to do macroeconomics. He showed us that theory without data is incomplete, and that the data could speak if you let it. VARs, rational inattention. He reshaped how we understand cause and effect in the macroeconomy. A giant of the

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RIP Chris Sims. I was enormously influenced by Chris. My own, perhaps idiosyncratic take: His main contribution came at a time when macroeconomists had constructed the first wave of big macroeconometric models. They were constructed piece by piece, a consumption block, an

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Christopher Sims and Robert Lucas transformed macroeconomics in different but fundamental ways. Lucas changed what theory had to explain. Sims changed what empirical work had to justify. Modern macro was built in the tension between those two demands. sebastiangaliani.substack.com/p/how-bob-luca…

State-dependent pricing matters most when trend inflation is high... but that's also when menu cost models are least tractable. I make progress in a new paper, solving the mean field game analytically and deriving a tractable linear Phillips curve for menu cost models:🧵 1/12

🧵 1/14: Picture yourself in the Bay of Naples, south of Rome on the west coast of Italy. It's late in the summer of AD 79 when a massive cloud rises high into the sky from above the nearby mountain, then ash rains like snow, and the ground shakes as if the gods are angry. The

A small story of a Noble Nobel laureate. On Monday Oct. 10, 2011, day of the announcement, I get an email from Chris. Reason? We (w/ A. Marcet & W. den Haan) organized a fiscal conference in Paris Dec. 8-9. Chris was 1 of 2 keynotes. Not "I have to cancel" (totally fine duh!) 1/n

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Y'all are going to annoy me into writing that paper. If you cherry pick forecasts after the fact, you'll find good ones. If there's enough monkeys flipping coins, you'll get one that hits 10 heads in a row.