Given the nature of this platform, it is hard to know what kind of track record folks have in making major macro calls. Here's a look at my track record over the last few years. Thread.

Stocks and Bonds get more positively correlated as yields move toward 5%.

Chinese corporations have a debt service problem.

Great back and forth last week with Eric Basmajian and fejau fleshing out how the "income-driven expansion" thesis differs from others' views of what explains the recent economic expansion. Really worth the read and wrestling with the possibilities. x.com/EPBResearch/st…

Gold typically offers the best financial market hedge against geopolitical shocks.

Didn’t learn too much incremental today when it comes to economic policy ahead. Out of all the executive orders, seems modest macro impact so far. Likely working on more in the future. And as always press conference rhetoric is not made policy (on tariffs or anything else).

Wait, Trump said he would do a $BTC Reserve, not promise to "evaluate it." Evaluate/Study is what Washington does when they don't want to do something. $BTC is down ~5% since this announcement.

Trump let's DOGE barrel into the Treasury and take control of their payment system. Shuts down USAID Slaps on tariffs Unleashes Tom Homan to depart illegals. But wait! Now he wants to study a BTC Strategic Reserve carefully? Why get timid on this issue but not the others?

In the 2 hours since I wrote the above ... Trump wants to take over Gaza Suspended all inbound parcels from China Offered an 8-mo buyout to every employee of the CIA. It seems there is no limit to his aggressive, out-of-the-box thinking .... But he wants to study a Bitcoin

U.S. MIDDLE EAST ENVOY WITKOFF: TRUMP IS TELLING MIDDLE EAST THAT GAZA WILL PROBABLY BE UNINHABITABLE FOR 10-15 YEARS

3-day tick chart of the 10-year yield. Down 20 basis points since yesterday’s high, a big move for <36 hours. Why? First, I would argue the economic/inflation data since 4.60% yesterday does not really support such a big move. I’m thinking it is DOGE and now that it’s into

The most interesting thing about $MSTR earnings has always been that it is, in fact, not interesting. 🧵

Some people have recently asked whether I am an AI bot or not. If there is any evidence you need to confirm my humanity, please refer to the very unfortunate, design-inept graph below that I am extremely proud of.

Who here still thinks Trump “doesn’t own Bitcoin” because it’s wBTC? Trump wraps differently you plebs

BESSENT: HAD A CONSTRUCTIVE MEETING WITH FED'S POWELL I wonder what's next

did they pick the hotel yet that's what i wanna know

trick question: it's obviously going to be the Trump hotel guys