The “Cyclical Economy” aggregates employment and output for the high-powered engine of economic growth including residential construction, manufacturing, and durable goods consumption/transportation.

Recessions always come with an annual contraction in the rate of growth for the…

An objective look at the Duncan Leading Index

Watch on YouTube: youtube.com/watch?v=KRJxFf…

The U.S. fertility rate fell to 1.62 births per woman in 2023, a 2% decline from the year before. It is the lowest rate recorded since the government began tracking it in the 1930s. wsj.com/us-news/americ…

Watch the whole thing.

An objective look at the Duncan Leading Index

Watch on YouTube: youtube.com/watch?v=KRJxFf…

One of my favorite follows

H/t: Eric Basmajian

youtu.be/KRJxFfUpo5k?si…

All the love for large-caps.

No love for small and micro-caps.

Don Johnson colorado_golfer The narrative requires context.

It's not a 'housing unit shortage.'

Since 2012, housing units under construction have increased by 12% per annum.

Multi-family units increased at 15.5% per annum!

There are plenty of housing units; they are just oversupplied in multi-family,…

March saw a drop in single-family permits, which, if continued, would begin to end the upturn we are seeing in single-family units under construction.

Multi-family permits continue to plunge, which will keep downward pressure on MF units under construction.