This will also be a thousand percent tracked closely by Beijing.

I'm just begging people to consider that a "multipolar" world order will see *more* of these kinds of wars not fewer

Need to quantify this. China gets at most 20% discount off global price for oil from Iran, which at average prices from 2024 is ~$16/barrel. Over ~1.5mbpd, this is ~$8B/year.

Most island countries are terrified of rising sea levels without a backup plan. Meanwhile, Singapore:

This is why giving away Donbass cannot be an option for Ukraine 🇺🇦 Donald Trump 🇺🇸 will ask Zelensky to give away Donbass in exchange for a ceasefire with Russia 🇷🇺. It would mean giving 9 cities and the main fortifications to Russia without a fight. 🧵THREAD🧵1/18⬇️

A major breakthrough, this marks the milestone Ukraine has been striving toward since at least 2023, endless possibilites, AI-powered drone swarms capable of overwhelming air defences, striking multiple targets at once, and adapting their flight paths in real time.

Macron: "The day the conflict stops, the security guarantees [for Ukraine] will be deployed." As supportive as Macron thinks he sounds, this completely disincentivizes Putin from ever wanting to stop the conflict. theguardian.com/world/2025/sep…

Also, to everyone who enjoys relative peace and stable interaction between the great powers (or, at least, lack of direct military conflict), enjoy this current phase of Sino-American technological mutual dependency (or mutually assured supply-chain destruction) while it lasts.

George Magnus Is it about who can last longer, or about who can last long enough to set up an alternative supply line? Neither of this is a natural monopoly.

This is *still* happening nearly after a year. The cabbies of Beijing, as they wait in the rain for their next passenger, continue to chat with each other about Trump's effects on gold prices.